Gold price slips from 3-week high, down Rs 315

 
Gold prices slipped from a three-week high on Monday, losing Rs 315 to Rs 30,885 per 10 grams in New Delhi, on profit-selling at prevailing higher levels.

Traders said sluggish demand due to ongoing 'Shradh' period also influenced the sentiment.

Gold of 99.9 and 99.5 per cent purity plunged by Rs 315 each to Rs 30,885 and Rs 30,685 per ten grams, respectively.

It had climbed to a three-week high of Rs 31,200 in the previous session.

Sovereign also lacked necessary follow-up support and declined by Rs 100 to Rs 25,000 per piece of eight gram.

In line with a general weak trend, silver ready declined by Rs 100 to Rs 49,580 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 20 to Rs 49,580 per kg. The white metal had surged by Rs 1,225 in the previous session.

However, silver coins held steady at Rs 86,000 for buying and Rs 87,000 for selling of 100 pieces.

Debt-laden companies are selling off assets in a slowing economy

Kishore Biyani is smiling again. The poster boy of the retail revolution in India is starting a new business called Big Bazaar Direct . The e-commerce initiative involves setting up a network of franchisees who will take the Biyani-led Future Group's Big Bazaar retail chain to the doorsteps of consumers. The venture, says the company, will usher in the next retail revolution. While that may be a tad too optimistic, the new business certainly means Biyani has overcome the difficulties he was facing until recently.

What makes Biyani bullish? Until a year-and-a-half ago, Future Group was burdened with massive debt. But the company was not generating enough cash. That not only made repaying the debt difficult but also put a question mark on the company's survival. What did Biyani do? In April last year, he sold his profitable Pantaloon retail business to Aditya Birla Nuvo for Rs 1,600 crore. A month later, he sold his financial services business to private equity player Warburg Pincus for Rs 590 crore. And this year, he sold a 22.5 per cent stake in his life insurance joint venture with Italy's Generali for Rs 300 crore. The sale of assets helped him prune the debt to Rs 3,500 crore from Rs 10,000 crore two years ago, and put him back on track.

In debt-laden Corporate India there are several instances like the Future Group. While financially stressed companies globally are shedding assets - French retail giant Carrefour and Canadian gold producer Barrick Gold to name two - the trend is most visible in India. Corporate houses such as GMR Group, Anil Ambani's Reliance Group, Videocon Industries, Adani Group, GVK Group and Jaiprakash Associates have either sold some assets and stakes in the companies or are planning to do so in order to ease their debt burden.

The debt trap
A recent Credit Suisse report shows the collective borrowings of 10 large corporate houses rose 15 per cent in 2012/13. Anil Ambani's Reliance Group has a debt of Rs 1,13,543 crore on its books while London-based mining tycoon Anil Agarwal's Vedanta Group owes Rs 99,610 crore (see A Mountain of Debt). What raises alarm bells is the worsening interest coverage ratio at some companies. The ratio indicates a company's ability to pay interest on its loans. Companies with a ratio of more than one are considered to be generating enough operating income to meet their interest obligations. The ratio was 0.7 for GMR, 0.6 for Lanco Infratech, and 0.4 for GVK.

The interest coverage ratio is worsening because, while the debt is growing, interest rates remain high and revenue growth is slipping. The weighted average lending rate of state-run banks was 12.06 per cent in June 2013, compared with 12.65 per cent in March 2012, despite the central bank cutting its main lending rate by 125 basis points. According to ratings firm CRISIL Ltd, revenue growth at 1,500 listed companies was 15 to 18 per cent in 2011/12 but has fallen steadily since then. "Growth has plummeted to 3.8 per cent in the April-to-June quarter of this year," says Prasad Koparkar, Senior Director, CRISIL.

What brought Corporate India down to its knees? An economy going through its worst phase in a decade, tepid consumption and high interest rates all can be blamed for the current mess. A weak government that has delayed critical reforms in a range of sectors including financial services, mining, labour, land acquisition and energy has added to the problems. But, perhaps, the most important reason why many corporate houses that were in the fast lane until a few years ago are now struggling to survive is past exuberance.

Sachindra Nath, Group CEO at Religare Enterprises Ltd, puts things in perspective. Corporate growth was funded purely out of debt, he says. "The hypothesis was that with debt they will grow the business.

The equity valuation subsequently will go up and they will raise further capital," says Nath. This calculation went horribly wrong as the economy slowed and capital markets turned choppy.

Wake-up call
Aashish Mehra, Partner and Managing Director for Asia Pacific at consultancy Strategic Decisions Group, says irrational exuberance, poor risk assessment and overconfidence among companies that they will be able to manage things if they go wrong led them on the path to self-destruction. "Business houses went overboard with their investments during the boom of 2000-2007, choosing to live beyond their means," he says. "When they realised they might be stuck with a few lemons and they were unable to manage them, that turned out to be a wake-up call and forced them to put up a 'on sale' tag."

A prime example of irrational exuberance is Vijay Mallya's Kingfisher Airlines, which began operations in 2005. It took on debt to buy planes and acquire a low-cost airline in 2007. By 2011 it became India's second-largest carrier by market share. But it never made a profit and, by early 2012, wasn't generating enough cash to service loans, make tax payments or pay staff salaries. Soon, employees struck work, the tax department froze its accounts and banks refused to lend more. The airline was ultimately grounded, but not before it weakened its parent UB Group and forced Mallya to sell a controlling stake in flagship United Spirits to Diageo Plc in November 2012.

Naresh Goyal, founder of Jet Airways, has fared no better. Jet's debt crossed Rs 12,000 crore last year. In April, Jet sold a 24 per cent stake to Gulf carrier Etihad Airways.

The aviation sector, however, is not the worst affected. Companies in infrastructure, real estate and energy sectors lead this race. Hyderabad-based infrastructure conglomerate GVK Group is looking to raise about Rs 2,200 crore by selling a stake in GVK Airport Holdings to trim debt. The cash-strapped group operates Mumbai and Bangalore airports. Finance chief Issac A. George says the company hopes to finalise a deal by December.

GVK's southern rival GMR Group sold a 74 per cent stake in a highway project in September for Rs 222 crore to a fund of infrastructure financier IDFC. This was the second sale of a road project within six months by the Bangalorebased infrastructure group founded by G.M. Rao. The company had in March sold its Singapore power plant. More assets could be put on the block. Madhu Terdal, Group Chief Financial Officer at GMR Group, says the corporate house continues to focus on creating liquidity and reducing debt.

Also in September, Jaiprakash Industries, the Delhi-based builder of roads, dams and townships, sold its Gujarat cement assets to UltraTech Cement. The sale of assets with a cement production capacity of 4.8 million tonnes a year will help Jaiprakash cut its debt by Rs 3,600 crore. But it isn't enough to ease the Rs 56,000 crore debt burden substantially, and the company is also planning to sell some of its hydroelectric power plants and land.

In Gurgaon, DLF, is also striving to cut debt. The country's biggest property developer had diversified into the hospitality sector in 2006 after tying up with global hotel chain Hilton International. In 2007, it bought a controlling stake in Singapore-based hotel chain Amanresorts International for $400 million. But the plans didn't work out. The hotels industry suffered a jolt after the global economic crisis led to a fall in tourist traffic.

Simultaneously, demand for property dropped and raising funds became challenging. DLF's net debt shot up to Rs 22,725 crore in 2011/12 from Rs 10,323 crore in 2007/08. The company embarked on a debt-reduction programme in November 2011 when it bought out Hilton from their joint venture to make the asset sales easier. Last year, DLF sold four land parcels, where it had planned to build hotels with Hilton, to a Kolkata-based consortium for Rs 567 crore. It is also looking for a buyer for Amanresorts. The efforts have helped cut its net debt to Rs 20,369 crore.

Asset sales are happening in the energy sector, too. In June, Videocon Industries sold its 10 per cent stake in a Mozambique gas block to a consortium of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation and Oil India for $2.48 billion (about Rs 17,000 crore). The sale will help the consumer electronics company led by Venugopal Dhoot to slash its debt to Rs 10,000 crore from Rs 27,000 crore. Another energy company buried under a pile of debt is Suzlon. The Pune-based wind turbine maker in September sold a majority stake in its China arm to a local company for about Rs 177 crore to battle its Rs 13,000 crore debt. Lossmaking Lanco Infratech is restructuring its debt and looking to sell some of its power plants.

Some companies fell into the debt trap while growing their overseas businesses. Brothers Malvinder and Shivinder Singh expanded their Fortis Healthcare hospital chain in the past few years through overseas acquisitions by borrowing money. Recently, the company sold its businesses in Vietnam and Australia, which helped prune its debt to Rs 3,284 crore from Rs 7,000 crore. The company's focus is on improving operating performance though it could evaluate more options for divestment if required, says Group CEO Vishal Bali.

Shree Renuka Sugars is another company which expanded its global footprint in recent years. The company ventured into Brazil with the acquisition of two loss-making companies in 2010. The sugar maker is now saddled with Rs 7,590 crore of debt, of which Rs 5,190 crore is on the books of the Brazilian companies. The company's problems mounted after a drought in the South American nation hurt output. The Brazilian real's steep drop against the US dollar has made debt servicing even more difficult. The company is now looking to sell some Brazilian assets including a power plant.

Share pledges, loan refinancing
Selling assets, especially those core to a company's business, is rarely the first choice for founders. "There is always an aversion to sell assets," says Koparkar of CRISIL. Financially stressed companies initially try to cut costs, defer expansion plans, sell or pledge shares to raise funds, and refinance loans. When these options fail, companies sell their assets. "There is no one-size-fits-all solution," says Michael J. Surface, Leader-Advisory at consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) India. "It depends on the company and its liquidity position."

Companies where founders pledged shares have another problem to worry about. Suzlon's founders have pledged almost their entire stake in the company while promoters of Jaypee Infratech have put more than 80 per cent of their holding as collateral with lenders. The pledging turned counter-productive when companies' stock market valuations dropped. For instance, the market value of Shree Renuka, where founders have pledged about 39 per cent of their stake in the company, has fallen to about Rs 1,200 crore from Rs 2,700 crore five years ago. Similar is the case with Videocon. Its founders have pledged twothirds of their stake and its market value has slumped to about Rs 5,600 crore from nearly Rs 10,000 crore in 2007.

Some companies have managed to refinance their loans from local and overseas lenders. In January 2012, Anil Ambani's Reliance Communications refinanced its foreign currency convertible bonds of $1.18 billion from three Chinese lenders. But not everyone is as successful as Ambani in refinancing loans. Suzlon defaulted on its overseas bonds last year, though it also managed to raise fresh debt this year to repay existing loans.

"The refinancing options have dried up," says Koparkar. "A weak rupee has only increased the cost of hedging [overseas loans]."

Cautious banks
Many debt-laden companies have delayed interest payments or defaulted on loans. This has pushed banks' bad loans higher. Gross bad loans at Indian banks have jumped to 3.92 per cent of total loans in June 2013 from 2.36 per cent in March 2011. According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), stress tests suggest gross bad loans may rise to 4.4 per cent by March 2014 in a severe stress scenario.

Banks have also seen a rapid rise in loan restructuring. The size of restructured assets as a percentage of gross advances of banks has more than doubled to above six per cent as of June 2013 from 2.6 per cent in December 2010. Kuntal Sur, Director for advisory services at consulting firm KPMG, says debt restructuring is not unusual during economic downturns but it needs total commitment from the founders of a company to succeed.

The level of restructured debt has reached alarming levels at some lenders such as Central Bank of India and Indian Overseas Bank. Central Bank of India's restructured portfolio is at Rs 14,000 crore to Rs 15,000 crore, says Executive Director R.K. Goyal. "Our restructured portfolio is a bit higher because of exposure to discoms [power distribution companies]. If you exclude the discoms, the restructured assets are about Rs 6,000-7,000 crore, which is equal to three per cent of our total advances," he says.

Rising defaults and debt recasts have made banks wary of lending. "Banks are sitting on a lot of liquidity but they are cautious about where they invest and who they invest with," says PwC's Surface. Avinash Gupta, Senior Director at business services firm Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India, says banks are looking for better quality assets. "You can't keep pushing the can down the road," he says. "Sometimes you will have to stop and keep looking for better assets."

Banks are also putting pressure on overleveraged corporate houses to let go of some assets. And this pressure is unlikely to ease. The new RBI governor has made his stand clear. Banks must improve the efficiency of the loan recovery system, Raghuram Rajan said on September 4, the day he assumed office. "Promoters do not have a divine right to stay in charge regardless of how badly they mismanage an enterprise, nor do they have the right to use the banking system to recapitalise their failed ventures," he added.

So, what is in store for debt-laden companies? "Those who lack management capability and financial strength may have to get out of the business and completely rethink the portfolio," says Suresh Subudhi, Partner and Director at Boston Consulting Group. Companies with strong management will need to churn their business portfolio, he says.

They must retain cash-generating assets and sell cash-sinking assets to improve revenue growth and enhance profitability, he adds. Mehra of Strategic Decisions Group agrees. While divesting assets, the key question companies face is whether they should sell the lemons or the crown jewels. "It would be a pity to be left only with a lemon portfolio by divesting the crown jewels," he says. "Perhaps the answer is in the right combination." There are some who are optimistic about the future. "Liquidity is improving and the government has cleared many stalled projects," says Goyal of Central Bank of India. The asset sales will release the funds as well as management bandwidth for corporate houses to focus on their main businesses. Nath of Religare says corporate houses are no longer overenthusiastic and are thinking through their business plans. Retail pioneer Biyani has shown how to make tough decisions and come back. It's time for others to take a cue.

Companies mop up Rs 4,800 cr via issue of retail NCDs

Indian companies have mopped up over Rs 4,800 crore so far this financial year through non-convertible debentures (NCDs) to retail investors, garnering nearly three times the amount that was actually targeted.

NCDs are loan-linked bonds issued by a company that can't be converted into stock, but offer higher interest rate than convertible debentures.

Four non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) - Srei Infrastructure Finance, Shriram Transport Finance Company, Rural Electrification Corp and Muthoot Finance - have tapped the NCD route so far in 2013-14.

According to data available with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), these companies have managed to garner about Rs 4,809 crore through NCD route, indicating a strong investor demand for the retail debt market products.

They had a target to mop up Rs 1,700 crore collectively.

Interestingly, Srei Infrastructure Finance has taken the NCD route twice between April and September.

Experts say volatile conditions in the equity markets have led to companies opting for the NCD route to raise funds. Besides, investors are attracted to good returns being offered in these NCD issues.

"Debt instruments, especially NCDs, have emerged as a preferred route for retail investors to park their funds as these were offering higher returns compared to what most of the banks providing on fixed deposits," a market analyst said. "While banks offer a return of about 8.75 per cent for a five-year period, NCDs of a similar tenure can offer between 10 per cent and 12 per cent," he added.

Most of the funds were raised to support financing activities and to meet working capital requirements.

Individually, REC garnered Rs 3,510 crore against the target of Rs 1,000 crore, Shriram Transport Finance Company Ltd mopped up Rs 736 crore against the base size of Rs 375 crore and Muthoot Finance raked in Rs 324 crore against the target of Rs 150 crore.

Srei Infrastructure Finance raked in a total of Rs 134 crore against the base size of Rs 75 crore in April and raised Rs 105 crore in September against the base size of Rs 100 crore.

In 2012-13, 15 companies had raked in nearly Rs 17,000 crore via NCDs. In comparison, a cumulative amount of Rs 35,611 crore was garnered by 16 firms through their NCDs in the preceding year.

Finance oil imports via ECBs, Chidambaram tells Moily PTI

Finance Minister P Chidambaram has dubbed Oil Minister M Veerappa Moily's claim of cutting 3 per cent in oil import bill through fuel conservation as "ambitious" and has suggested that more oil imports need to be financed through overseas borrowings to help cut current account deficit (CAD). Moily is set to launch a six-week mega fuel conservation drive on Tuesday, attempted to taper demand, thereby cutting oil import bill by $2.5 billion. He had outlined the drive as well as other measures in a letter to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Chidambaram on August 30 saying his initiatives would help save $20 billion in foreign exchange outgo. Responding to Moily's letter, Chidambaram wrote back last week saying the projected savings of foreign exchange on account of various measures proposed are optimistic, official sources said. "While it is recognised that a conservation campaign might result in some reduction in petro-product consumption, the estimates of savings projected at 3 per cent, over and above the proposed crude imports cut, appear to be ambitious," the finance minister wrote. Stating that only $3.75 billion out of the total crude oil import bill of over $160 billion is proposed to finance through External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs), Chidambaram said the possibility of increasing the ECB mode of financing should be explored. India paid about $144.29 billion last financial year for importing oil and this year the outgo is projected at $160 billion. Besides fuel conservation, Moily wants increase in crude oil imports from Iran, which is paid in rupee and will help curtail foreign exchange outgo. Chidambaram also wanted oil companies to be "encouraged to import crude oil from Iran in greater quantities and their imports from Iran be reviewed regularly". As US and western sanctions have blocked all payment routes, India pays Iran in rupees in a Uco Bank branch in Kolkata. Buying more oil from Iran would mean it pays more rupees than dollars it has to pay to other sellers. Sources close to Moily said the conversation drive - which includes the minister and his officials using public transport at least once a week - is aimed at sending a message for conservation down the line. Also, it is aimed at bringing about change in people's mindset and to act as a catalyst in improving public transport system. The government, meanwhile, is grappling with high CAD, the gap between inflows and outgo of foreign exchange. It has set a target to bring down the CAD, which touched a record high to 4.8 per cent of GDP last financial year, to 3.7 per cent level in the current financial year. Moily's other measures included asking state-owned oil firms to keep crude imports at 2012-13 level of 105.96 million tonnes that will save $1.76 billion in foreign exchange. The mega fuel conservation campaign - to limit its consumption growth to last year's 4.1 per cent level - is projected to help prop up the rupee, which has slid sharply against the US dollar this fiscal.

BSE Sensex slumps 347 points ahead of release of CAD data

The BSE Sensex slumped by 347 points on Monday on continued selling in blue chips on negative global cues and in anticipation of poor quarterly current account deficit (CAD) figures later in the day.

Markets showed concern over a possible shutdown of the US Federal government services due to a political deadlock over the 'Obamacare' plan in the budget and with Italy likely to face new elections.

Domestically, the market expected a widened CAD for the April-June quarter that might put more pressure on the rupee and invite a ratings cut by international agencies.

The 30-share index of the Bombay Stock Exchange fell 1.8 per cent, or 347.50 points, to end at 19,379.77 on the last day of trade for September.

The broader 50-share Nifty closed 1.7 per cent, or 97.90 points, lower at 5,735.30.

The rate hike from the central bank on September 20 cut short what had been a rally in domestic shares, although the Sensex still managed to gain 4.1 per cent in September, its biggest monthly advance since November 2012.

Sector-wise, bank, capital goods, metal, automobile and oil and gas scrips tanked. However, information technology (IT) stocks gained.

The bank index plunged 320.07 points, capital goods index was down 231.96 points, followed by metal index (-209.44 points), automobile index (-165.11 points) and oil and gas index (-145.78 points).

Healthy buying was observed in IT index which rose 4.37 points.

CAD widens to 4.9 per cent of GDP in Q1 on high gold, oil imports PTI

High imports of gold and oil pushed current account deficit (CAD) to 4.9 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) to $21.8 billion in the April-June quarter of the current financial year.

CAD is the difference between inflow and outflow of foreign exchange.

The deficit had declined to 3.6 per cent in the January-March quarter after touching a record high of 6.5 per cent in the October-December quarter. It was 4.4 per cent (or $16.9 billion) in Q1 2012-13.

"The trade deficit, coupled with a slow recovery in net invisibles (income and services), led to widening of CAD to $21.8 billion in Q1 of 2013-14 from $16.9 billion in Q1 of 2012-13," the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its Balance of Payments statement.

Gold imports increased by $7.3 billion in the first quarter of the current financial year. The imports stood at about 335 tonnes in the April-June quarter.

"Excluding the increase in gold imports of $7.3 billion in Q1 of 2013-14 over the corresponding quarter of the preceding year, CAD would work out to $14.5 billion, which translates into 3.2 per cent of GDP," the central bank said.

RBI said there was a small draw down on country's foreign exchange reserves to finance the CAD.

"On BoP basis, there was a slight draw down in foreign exchange reserves of $0.3 billion in Q1 of 2013-14 as against an accretion of $0.5 billion in Q1 of 2012-13," it said.

During the quarter, while exports declined by 1.5 per cent, imports recorded an increase of 4.7 per cent. The trade deficit widened further to $50.5 billion in Q1 of 2013-14, from $43.8 billion a year ago, RBI said.

The government plans to bring down CAD to 3.7 per cent, or $70 billion, in 2013-14 from 4.8 per cent, or $88.2 billion, in 2012-13.

RBI governor Raghuram Rajan receives Deutsche Bank Prize, 2013

Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram G Rajan has been awarded the Fifth Deutsche Bank Prize for Financial Economics 2013, in recognition of his ground-breaking research work which influenced financial and macro-economic policies around the world.

The academic prize is sponsored by the Deutsche Bank Donation Fund and carries an endowment of euro 50,000. The Centre for Financial Studies (CFS) awards the prize bi-annually in partnership with Goethe University Frankfurt.

Presenting the prize to Rajan, Deutsche Bank co-chairman Juergen Fitschen yesterday said that it would have been hard to find a more deserving winner for this year's award.

Rajan's career "is not only marked by path-breaking, empirically-based research, but he never shied away from the real world of complex policy issues and special interests. He never shied away from speaking inconvenient truths," Fitschen said.

He noted that Rajan had in 2005 warned about the dangers of building up "unsustainable imbalances in the financial system," three years ahead of global financial crisis.

"Prof. Rajan's work revealed that the relationship between the financial sector and the rest of the economy is so complex that it is not good enough to simply look at the size of the financial sector in relation to the gross domestic product (GDP), as is done so often at present," Fitschen said.

He had also "warned us about the dangers of using or rather misusing" financial regulations and financial systems for purposes other than their original objectives, for example, for safeguarding stability or fostering growth, the Deutsche Bank co-CEO said.

The housing bubble in the United States, which triggered the financial crisis in 2008, had highlighted the danger of using the financial system to make up for the failures in social policies.

Jury chairman and director of the Centre for Financial Studies Michael Heliassos said the organisers are quite pleased to welcome Rajan in his new capacity as the RBI governor.

Rajan was picked up for the prize from more than 260 nominations from top universities, central banks and research centres in 37 countries. More than half of the nominations came from the US.

Oil & gas sector may get safety regulator

The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas plans to set up a regulator to look into health, safety and environment (HSE) practices in the oil and gas sector, minister M Veerappa Moily said on Thursday.

“I have moved a proposal to have a regulator for HSE and the ministry is looking into it,” Moily said on the sidelines of the two-day Global HSE Conference organised by Cairn India.

Currently, the Directorate General of Mines Safety is the regulatory body looking into safety in mines and oil fields. Moily said the proposed body would focus on the oil and gas sector.

Moily said the next round for the New Exploration Licensing Policy bidding would be early next year. “Taking lessons from the first nine rounds of auctioning, we would come up with a comprehensive policy this time. It would be industry-friendly,” he added.

On another matter, the minister said the deadline of the Kirit Parikh committee has been extended by a month. The panel was set up to look into a new methodology for pricing of diesel and liquefied petroleum gas, after ministries had a difference of opinion on pricing. “The report would be submitted after a month, as they have asked for an extension,” Moily said.

The finance and petroleum ministries had disagreed over the issue.

The finance ministry wanted a change in the formula and calculation to be made on the basis of export parity pricing, against import parity pricing now.

The new formula was expected to result in savings of Rs 15,000-18,000 crore a year, as it wouldn’t include costs such as transportation.

Calculating using import parity pricing involves 80 per cent of import parity price and 20 per cent of export parity price.

The new methodology was mooted by the finance ministry to reduce underrecoveries, as Customs duty of 2.5 per cent (according to import parity pricing) was going as underrecoveries.

RBI governor says forex reserves comfortable

 
Even as the country’s foreign exchange reserves are at a 39-month low, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan says they are at a “comfortable level”.

According to RBI data released last Friday, the country’s foreign exchange reserves were at $275.3 billion as on September 13, which went up by about half a billion over the previous week.

The central bank has been cautious in using its forex to stem the depreciation of the rupee, which has weakened by 14.4 per cent against the dollar this financial year. Under Rajan, who took charge on September 4, the currency has been able to halt its fall, which has appreciated 5.5 per cent this month.

In July, the central bank had beefed up its foreign exchange market intervention as it sold close to $6 billion to stem the rupee fall. Rajan has also announced several steps, like swap facility for banks for foreign currency non-resident bank, or FCNR (B), deposits and banks’ overseas borrowing limit. Both these windows, which are available till November 30, are expected to swell the forex kitty by $10 billion.

According to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch report, India’s import cover has halved to seven months — last seen in 1998 — in the past five years, which is well below the eight to 10 months needed for rupee stability.

Rajan, who was speaking at a seminar in Frankfurt, reiterated the policy stance of the central bank was “neutral” at this point in time, though he said high and persistent retail price inflation was a concern. “At this point, we are neutral, we will see how things develop,” he said when asked about the central bank’s policy stance.

The RBI chief added inflation was not just due to higher food prices. “Unfortunately, there is still some inflation when you strip out the effects of food and energy. Therefore, it is not just food, it’s other factors also, which are driving inflation,” Rajan told reporters on the sidelines of the conference.

During the mid-quarter policy review, Rajan had hiked the repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 7.5 per cent, while reducing the marginal standing facility rate by 75 bps to 9.5 per cent.

“The intent here is that when the repo rate becomes the effective policy rate, it should be consistent with inflationary conditions in the economy. On net, these measures will reduce the cost of bank financing substantially while allowing us to take an appropriately precautionary stance on inflation,” Rajan said while announcing the policy last Friday.

He added there was a need to bring real interest rates down as low as possible. According to him, there is a need for new innovative ways to bring down real interest rates. Rajan believes emerging market economies must resort to fiscal tightening when money is flowing in.

The US Federal Reserve has recently decided against reducing its massive monetary stimulus, known as the third round of quantitative easing. According to Rajan, an exit from quantitative easing will be more abrupt than entry. He said there was a need to rethink dangers of over-stimulation. Besides, there is a need to rethink dangers of cross-border capital flows. Going forward, the external consequences are large, he added.

CBI set to probe NSEL crisis

With Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Thursday saying the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), the Forward Markets Commission (FMC) and the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) will look into the payment crisis at National Spot Exchange Ltd (NSEL), the probe net on the exchange looks set to widen.

Chidambaram said the three would look into different aspects of the troubles at NSEL, “which flouted rules from Day-1”, and take action under their respective jurisdictions. He added the income tax department was also checking the financial details of NSEL investors to see if any black money was involved.

A committee headed by Economic Affairs Secretary Arvind Mayaram had on Monday given its report on NSEL to the finance minister.

“The Mayaram panel report has suggested CBI, FMC and MCA must take appropriate action. They have listed the irregularities... They will take action,” Chidambaram said at a press conference here.

FMC might file its report in a couple of days, after which the three bodies would decide on the action, he said.

A CBI official said the agency was in the process of verifying the NSEL complaint. It was looking into the aspect of criminal offence to find out if there was an instance of fraud or cheating.

The government had received a complaint from investors but not referred the matter to CBI yet. The agency, therefore, was also trying to establish whether the probe in this matter came under its jurisdiction, a senior CBI official said.

Ruling out similarities between the crises at Satyam and NSEL, Chidambaram dropped hints that the government might not bail out the people that had put their money in the exchange, saying they invested with open eyes, knowing full well they were investing in an unregulated entity. “The government does not come into the picture at all,” he added.

Chidambaram said NSEL was not a registered or recognised association under FMC; it got exemption even before it started its business.

“In the way NSEL started business, there’s much more than meets the eye. People seem to have given money to NSEL promoters, knowing fully well that it is not a regulated entity... Many of them made money in initial stages and some lost money now... I have seen the exemption order. Now, whether it is valid or not has to be examined.” he said.  of the 17,000 investors who put their money in NSEL — which is now grappling with a Rs 5,600-crore payment crisis — 9,000 traded through eight top brokers, including Anand Rathi, Motilal Oswal, India Infoline and Systematix. According to the finance minister, the investors would definitely move court, as it is a matter between them and the company.

The government had in 2007 exempted NSEL from provisions of the Forward Contracts Regulation Act (FCRA) to operate one-day forward commodity contracts.

The exemption was given on some conditions, including delivery of commodities within 11 days and a bar on short-selling by members of the exchange. “From Day-1, NSEL was violating the very conditions under which it claimed it could do business,” he said.

The Mayaram panel had suggested NSEL’s troubles had no systemic risk of an impact on other markets. However, Chidambaram said he had asked both the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) and FMC to keep a careful watch. NSEL, part of the Jignesh Shah-led Financial Technologies group, had to suspend trading on July 31 after a government directive. It had committed itself to clearing its dues to investors in tranches through weekly payments. But it has so far defaulted on its weekly obligations for six weeks in a row.

Two other trading platforms — Multi Commodity Exchange and MCX-Stock Exchange — are also Financial Technologies-promoted entities. On whether the government was looking at changing the management of other entities with the same promoters, Chidambaram said: “Let us wait for the regulator’s report.”


Supreme Court order on tainted MPs: FM accuses BJP of changing stand
Under attack from the Opposition for bringing an ordinance to protect lawmakers from immediate disqualification, the Centre on Thursday hit back, accusing BJP of changing its stand on overturning a Supreme Court judgment on the issue. Finance Minister P Chidambaram had said in an all-party meeting on August 13 that there was a “unanimous demand” that something be done in relation with the Supreme Court judgment on Sections 62(5) and 8(4) of the Representation of People Act. “They are entitled to change their mind but they should not ask everybody to do so,” he said on Thursday.

Barack Obama asked to address India's discriminatory trade practices

Washington: Hours before the arrival of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh here, as many as 18 influential American groups asked President Barack Obama to address India's alleged discriminatory trade practices when he meets the Indian leader at the White House.

"India's discriminatory trade policies put American businesses at a disadvantage, place manufacturing jobs at risk, and jeopardize India's ability to grow its economy," said Alliance for Fair Trade with India (AFTI) co-chair and National Association of Manufacturers vice president of International Economic Affairs Linda Dempsey.

"The business community, elected officials, and the administration are united in their concern with these protectionist policies. We urge President Obama to seek immediate and concrete solutions that can lead to growth in the American and Indian economies alike," she said.

In the letter sent to Obama Thursday, the organisations highlighted the alleged harmful trade policies of India which include a failure to protect IP rights, forced local production of certain information technology and clean energy equipment, and revocations of patents and compulsory licenses for innovative medicines.

These unfair policies are designed to benefit a few Indian corporations at the expense of manufacturing and jobs in the United States and other countries around the world, they said in the letter.
 "In the last 18 months, India has consistently failed to recognise international intellectual property rights, hindering India's path to an innovative and knowledge-based economy," said Mark Elliot, co-chair of AFTI and executive vice president of the US Chamber of Commerce's Global Intellectual Property Centre.

"During his meeting with Prime Minister Singh, President Obama has the opportunity to promote a trade environment that fosters innovation and creativity, creates high-quality jobs, and advances global economic development," he said.

The letter to Obama by 18 business organisations adds to the growing anti-India campaign here.

This week, a bipartisan group of governors highlighted the impact India's unfair trade practices have on jobs in states across the US in a letter to Obama.

Additionally, more than 170 US Representatives and 40 Senators expressed concern over the trade environment in India that puts American jobs and industries at risk in letters to the administration earlier this year.

GAAR to come into effect from April 1, 2016

New Delhi: The controversial GAAR provision, which seeks to check tax avoidance by investors routing their funds through tax havens, will come into effect from April 1, 2016, a government notification said.

The provision of General Anti Avoidance Rules (GAAR) will apply to entities availing tax benefit of at least Rs 3 crore, according to the notification dated September 23.

It will apply to foreign institutional investors (FIIs) that have claimed benefits under any Double Tax Avoidance Agreement (DTAA).

Investments made by a non-resident by way of offshore derivative instruments or P-Notes through FIIs, will not be covered by the GAAR provisions.

Investments made before August 30, 2010, will not be scrutinised under GAAR, it said, adding the provisions will apply to assessees that obtain tax benefits on or after April 1, 2015.

"Stock markets will have a lot to cheer as FIIs which do not seek to avail of treaty benefits will not be subjected to GAAR. Investment in Participatory Notes will not be subject to GAAR," Deloitte Haskins & Sells Partner N C Hegde said.

The GAAR provisions were introduced in the 2012-13 Budget by then Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee to check tax avoidance and were to have come into effect from April 1, 2014. The proposal generated controversy, with investors getting apprehensive about harassment by tax authorities.

To soothe the nerves of jittery investors, Finance Minister P Chidambaram in January announced the postponement of the implementation of Chapter X-A of the I-T Act (dealing with GAAR) by two years to April 1, 2016.

A business arrangement can be termed 'impermissible' if its main purpose is to obtain tax benefit. Under the original GAAR proposals, the anti-tax avoidance provisions could be invoked "if one of the purposes" was to obtain tax benefit.

"Where a part of an arrangement is declared to be an impermissible avoidance arrangement, the consequences in relation to tax shall be determined with reference to such part only," the notification said.

The assessing officer has to issue a show-cause notice, with reasons, to invoke GAAR provisions and also has to give an opportunity to an assessee to explain whether an arrangement was 'impermissible.'

The government's decision to amend the provisions was in response to fears by investors that the tax department, armed with discretionary powers, would crack the whip even in cases where tax avoidance was not the intent.

The notification is broadly in line with recommendations of the Parthasarathi Shome Committee, which was set up by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in July last year to address the concerns of investors.

"From the notification, it is apparent that many recommendations of the Shome Committee have been accepted. However, the benefit of grandfathering has been limited - firstly, to investments made before August 1, 2010, and secondly, only for benefit up to March 31, 2015," said Rahul Garg, Direct Tax Leader at PwC India.

FCNR golden goose: Great returns on borrowed capital

Foreign banks are scrambling to raise dollar deposits from non-resident Indians — even tempting them with loans — to open their foreign currency non-resident (bank), or FCNR (B), deposit accounts in India.

The move comes after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), as part of its efforts to stem the rupee’s depreciation, opened a special window for swapping FCNR (B) dollar funds of three years or more at a concessional rate and offered various other incentives, including cheap dollar-rupee swap rates.

Observers say this has offered Indians residing abroad an opportunity to increase their income manifold using borrowed capital.

The process, as bankers and market participants explains, begins with a foreign bank requesting a non-resident to open a FCNR (B) deposit account with its India unit. The bank immediately offers the customer a loan against this deposit. The customer uses the loan to create another FCNR (B) deposit account, against which he is again given a loan. The process is repeated eight to 10 times. The customer benefits as he earns more interest on FCNR (B) deposits than he pays on loans against those.

Some of the Indian banks with foreign branches have also approached their non-resident customers to raise FCNR (B) deposits, but observers say these lenders are not as aggressive as their foreign rivals.

Industry analysts say, using this mechanism, non-resident Indians (NRIs) can make a net return that is significantly higher than the interest rates offered on deposits in developed markets like the US. The returns would easily lure NRIs. According to some estimates, by putting up just 10 per cent of the deposits, the client effectively makes between 18 and 21 per cent on the dollars.

The process, however, has raised concerns of systemic risk.

“The 2008-09 crisis was triggered by over-leveraging. We are again seeing foreign banks encouraging leveraging. There are reports that lenders are offering NRIs upfront loans against FCNR (B) deposits and repeating the process. Such leveraged money can leave as abruptly as it comes in, thereby increasing systemic risk,” Ajit Ranade, chief economist of Aditya Birla Group, says.
 On September 4, 2013, in an almost desperate move to arrest the slide the rupee, RBI had announced a window for swapping FCNR (B) dollar funds, mobilised for a period of at least three years, at a fixed rate of 3.5 per cent a year for the duration of the deposit. The scheme, the central bank had said, would remain operational until November 30, 2013.

In other words, the banking regulator is now permitting lenders to convert three-year FCNR (B) dollar deposits into rupees at 3.5 per cent, even though the swap cost, considering the recent rupee-dollar forward rates, is estimated to be more than six per cent. This has encouraged banks to mobilise FCNR (B) dollar deposits, as they can reduce their cost of fund by at least 250 basis points using this window.

“It is a win-win situation for all. The interest rates offered to non-residents on three-year FCNR (B) deposits in India are significantly more than the current dollar swap rate of 80 basis points a year for a comparable tenure. Banks will benefit, as they will have access to low-cost funds. And, ultimately, this will increase dollar flows into India,” Param Sarma, director and chief executive of NSP Treasury Risk Management Services, says.

Market participants expect banks to bring in over $10 billion through this route which will probably avoid the need for an immediate sovereign bond issue by the government.

“The swap window was necessitated by a sharp depreciation in the rupee and need to bridge the current account gap. There was a need for one large chunk of dollar inflow, which probably led to the introduction of this scheme. However, it is a subsidy, assuming the rupee-dollar swap cost is currently over six per cent. This subsidy will have to be borne by the country,” says Mecklai Financial Deputy CEO Partha Bhattacharyya.

Some industry analysts believe the subsidy burden on Indian taxpayers because of this move might be as high as Rs 2,000 crore a year, assuming banks bring in $10 billion of FCNR (B) deposits.

“We discontinued FCNR (A) deposits since we did not want to bear the entire currency risk, and these deposits also violated IMF (International Monetary Fund) conditions. But by allowing swap at a concessional rate of 3.5 per cent for FCNR (B), we are going back to the FCNR (A) regime, at least partly. I believe, we should be explicit in saying what would be the estimated cost of this subsidy, since the deposits might run up to five years,” Ranade adds.

Chidambaram and Modi are sparring over growth figures. Who is correct?

The finance minister says the BJP Prime Ministerial nominee's claim that economic growth rate during the tenure of the Atal Behari Vajpayee government was 8.4% a year on average. Calling Modi's claim a 'fake encounter' with facts, Chidambaram says the average annual growth for the six-year NDA period stood at 6% and that for the last five years at 5.9%. Obviously one of the two is wrong. Is it Chidambaram or Modi? Do share your views with us.

Oberoi Realty share sale begins, stock falls 3%

Oberoi Realty is trading lower by 3% at Rs 164 on NSE after the real estate firm’s share sale programme for diluting 3.49% of the promoter’s stake commenced today at bourses.

The company’s CMD and promoter Vikas Oberoi will sell 11.4 million shares at Rs 158 per share through stock exchanges to meet market regulator Sebi's guidelines on minimum public share holding norm, Oberoi Realty said in a regulatory filing.

As on June 30, 2013, the promoters had 78.49% in the company and they need to pare their stake to 75% for meeting Sebi guideline on minimum 25% public shareholding for private sector listed companies.

The stock hit high of Rs 165 and low of Rs 163 so far. A combined around 20,000 shares change hands on the counter in early morning deals on NSE and BSE.

RBI assures Street on liquidity management

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday assured the market it was closely monitoring liquidity conditions. It added it would take appropriate action, including open market operations, to ensure adequate liquidity was available to support the flow of credit to productive sectors of the economy.

Experts said the statement would result in government bond yields falling further on Thursday.

Beginning with the mid-quarter review of monetary policy on Friday, RBI began a calibrated unwinding of the exceptional measures announced since July to restore normalcy to financial flows. Currently, RBI is injecting about Rs 1.5 lakh crore into the system on a daily basis, through the liquidity adjustment facility, the export credit refinance facility and the marginal standing facility.

However, despite this, liquidity conditions have been tightening, as shown by the hardening of yields in the government securities market, owing to uncertainty on the government’s borrowing programme for the second half of 2013-14 and the prospective effects of banks’ half-yearly account closure. The seasonal pick-up in credit demand, the festive-season-related demand for currency and the sluggish deposit growth have also contributed to the tight liquidity.

On Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year 7.16 per cent benchmark government bond closed at 8.79 per cent, compared with its previous close of 8.84 per cent. Experts said the RBI’s assurance was necessary, as two government bond auctions were scheduled for this week.

On Monday, a government bond auction for a notified Rs 15,000 crore devolved partially on primary dealers to the tune of Rs 4,030 crore. On Friday, RBI would auction government bonds for a notified Rs 14,000 crore.

PM-Sharif meet to focus on trade

While the situation on the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir will definitely be discussed when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh meets his Pakistani counterpart, Nawaz Sharif, in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, it was emphasised by high-level sources on Wednesday that progress on trade would be made, as there is a concrete agenda to be followed for that.

The sources, who spoke on the condition of confidentiality, said that a significant step forward in exporting electricity to Pakistan could happen as early as next week. It had been held up, they claimed, not for political reasons but because the Pakistani side was evaluating its technical and commercial viability. However, it is believed that process is close to conclusion, and Pakistan may express formal interest in cross-border electricity trade, sending a delegation on the subject, within a week. Sharif and Singh are likely to meet on Sunday.

In another significant development, the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited, or NPCIL, will likely move forward within a few days on evaluating the terms of a possible contract with nuclear supplier Westinghouse. A limited exploratory agreement might be in place between the two companies, according to the highly-placed sources, before Singh meets US President Barack Obama on Friday. This is in spite of concerns expressed domestically that US companies, including Westinghouse, wish to dilute the nuclear liability legislation passed by the Parliament beyond recognition.

A lack of progress in transforming the US-India civil nuclear agreement of 2008 into real projects on the ground is often cited as a major cause for a chill in bilateral relations. However, officials close to the prime minister strongly denied that the United States had any ground for disappointment, and suggested that such claims may just be an American negotiating tactic.

Singh will also make a pitch for more US investment in India. Although the recent diplomatic coolness between India and the US has been driven in large part by the souring of US business on the India story, officials insisted that the outreach was not unusual. Reporters were told that a ramped-up pitch for investment will be the one consistent theme of all major upcoming foreign visits, including to China. The PM is scheduled to meet a group of US CEOs in New York City later this week.

Risk of a sovereign downgrade increases after SBI downgrade by Moody's

The risk of a sovereign downgrade risk has only become exacerbated after international rating agency Moody’s downgraded State Bank of India’s senior debt and local currency deposit to ‘Baa3’, and now has a negative outlook. The market is viewing this as a proxy for the sovereign rating. The State Bank of India and group entities account for 25 per cent of the country’s banking system. Currency strategists say that despite the recent euphoria after the Fed’s “no taper” decision, India is far from the comfort zone.

The stress is not only in the banking system, India Ratings and Research in a report has said that the default rate of corporate finance issuers in the country has risen to 4.5 per cent in FY13 from 3.5 per cent and 0.3 per cent in the previous two years. What this implies is that the RBI’s move to ease liquidity conditions will have little bearing on the current financial condition of borrowers and their ability to repay loans. Scotia Bank’s currency strategist Sacha Tihanyi says that this should remind the market of the risk to the sovereign of a credit rating downgrade, as Standard & Poor’s currently has the country’s BBB– investment grade rating on a negative outlook (other major agencies have it on stable).

Modi, Advani share dais at Bhopal rally

 
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) tried to put up a show of togetherness at a massive rally in Bhopal, where Narendra Modi was the star. The rally was the first to have party patriarch L K Advani share the dais with Modi, who seemed to do all the right things by referring to Advani as the BJP’s guiding light and publicly touching his feet (although almost as an afterthought, after seeing Shivraj Singh Chouhan doing so). Elsewhere, squabbles within the BJP broke out over the question of its allies, suggesting the road to forming a government at the Centre was not easy.

In his speech, Advani referred to the power sector reforms pioneered by Modi that ensured 24-hour power supply, a model then followed by other BJP-ruled states including Madhya Pradesh. He said on all indices of governance, the BJP-ruled states had stolen a march over others. Recalling the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee formed the government at the Centre in coalition with many parties and that BJP came to power in many states under a similar arrangement, Advani said no other party can challenge BJP’s performance and track record.
“In the coming assembly and Lok Sabha elections, we will win on the basis of the record of the BJP and NDA. No other party can compare with BJP or NDA... It is our achievements, which will fetch a victory for us. We will not win elections merely on the basis of speeches but on the basis of the performance, leadership, achievements and the work done by us,” he said.

Party president Rajnath Singh said BJP workers and sympathisers had been booked under the specious charge of Hindu terrorism and harassed. Singh, who spoke after Advani, said: “Modi can become the Prime Minister of the country and Chouhan the chief minister in Madhya Pradesh only if the worker of the BJP at booth level works hard.”

Party leader Uma Bharti also sought the blessings of the people to make Chouhan the chief minister and Modi “the destiny-maker of the nation”.

The rally was largely a congregation of party workers, called Karyakarta Mahakumbh.

Modi also shared his concerns about the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI). He said the Centre would not hesitate to use the CBI against political rivals, so the BJP needed to be conscious of this. Modi’s remarks were in the context of the case against former Gujarat home minister Amit Shah for his role in fake encounters after former DIG D G Vanzara turned against Modi and Shah.

Asking workers to make India ‘Congress-free’, Modi said: “I throw a challenge to Congress leaders: that they may choose any tactics in the coming polls but India’s voters will pay them back for each of their misdeeds during the last 10 years.”

In his typical style, he said during the United Progressive Alliance’s regime, there was a scam for every letter of the alphabet. If one were to count the money that the UPA-led government had siphoned off from the average Indian, the counting would start from Bhopal and end at Jan Path in Delhi (residence of Congress president Sonia Gandhi), he added.

“Mahatma Gandhi wanted to dismantle Congress after Independence, but the party did not honour his wish. We will have to work to make his dream come true and rid the country of the Congress party”, he said amid wild applause.

While ‘togetherness’ was the theme of the Bhopal rally, in Andhra Pradesh, the party unit sounded the bugle of rebellion when it rejected the overtures being made to Telugu Desam Party leader Chandrababu Naidu.

BJP’s Andhra unit president Kishan Reddy said the TDP was a ‘sinking ship’ and the BJP would make sure there would be no alliance with it. “If necessary, I will go to Delhi and explain why the alliance will hurt the BJP,” Reddy said in Hyderabad.

Modi said: “Congress harps on inclusive growth but one must know that the term had come out of BJP-ruled states like Madhya Pradesh where leaders like Chouhan have done tremendous work for the poorest of the poor. Those state governments that are working in the interest of the poor in country either belong to BJP or are part of the NDA. It doesn't suit them (UPA) to talk about inclusive growth.”

 

But while togetherness was the theme of this rally, in Andhra Pradesh the BJP unit sounded the bugle of rebellion when it rejected the overtures being made to Telugu Desam Party leader Chandrababu Naidu.

 

BJP AP unit President Kishan Reddy said the TDP was a sinking ship and the BJP would make sure there would be no alliance with it. “If necessary, I will go to delhi and explain why the alliance will hurt the BJP” reddy said in Hyderabad, putting the TDP leaders’ back up immediately.

Before polls, govt sets up pay commission

all it a poll compulsion or genuine desire to help government servants, the Centre on Wednesday decided to constitute the seventh pay commission for its five million employees and three million pensioners — three years before the commission’s recommendations will actually take effect. “Prime Minister (Manmohan Singh) has approved the constitution of the seventh Central Pay Commission,” Finance Minister P Chidambaram said in a statement here.

The pay commission awards, analysts say, might entail a Rs 1-lakh-crore annual burden. But the finance ministry doesn’t want to think about it yet: “don’t pre-judge the issue; let the terms of reference be decided first”.

According to officials, the move might soon be followed by a decision to increase the retirement age of government employees to 62 years from the current 60.

A look at earlier instances suggests the constitution of the pay commission at this time could be aimed at reverting to the usual practice, breached when the sixth pay panel was set up. The Cabinet had approved setting up of the sixth pay commission in July 2006, and its recommendations came into effect retrospectively from January 2006. But, that was because the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) -led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government, in power then, had initially refused to set up the commission. The Congress-led central government on Wednesday tried to beat the BJP, the main Opposition at present, on this count.

“NDA had rejected the legitimate formation of the sixth pay commission in 2003. The Congress set up the sixth pay commission in 2005 and now the seventh one in 2013,” Party general secretary incharge for communication, Ajay Maken, tweeted.

The NDA finance minister had said there was no need to constitute the sixth pay commission, as 50 per cent dearness allowance had already been merged with the basic pay.

Asked whether the fiscal consolidation exercise of the government would not be affected, as it was estimated the exchequer would take a hit of Rs 1 lakh crore due to the recommendations of the seventh pay commission, a senior finance ministry official said: “How can you estimate the burden on the exchequer. The terms of reference have yet to be decided.”

The year 2016-17 would be the terminal year of a five-year fiscal consolidation road map announced by the finance minister. By that time, the government aims to bring down the Centre’s fiscal deficit to three per cent of gross domestic product. In 2012-13, the first year of the road map, the deficit had stood at 4.9 per cent of GDP. The plan is to lower it further to 4.8 per cent this financial year, and then by 0.6 percentage points each year.

 

To a query on whether the government should be allowed to set up the commission — the model code of conduct would come into effect as Assembly polls are due in five states — the official said the decision had been announced, so setting up of the commission would not violate the election commission’s guidelines.

He said the department of personnel would now start discussions with staff associations of government employees for announcing the constitution of the commission, as well as its terms of reference. It would be set up in about a month’s time, he added.

According to the 2011 census, there were 725 million voters in India. The finance ministry tried to brush aside the view that the government had set up the commission to woo the eight million government employees, pensioners and, indirectly, their dependents ahead of general elections.

It rather said the commission had been set up three years in advance to ensure that the recommendations did not have to be implemented retrospectively and there wasn’t any sudden financial burden in a single year.

According to the finance ministry’s statement, the average time taken by a pay commission to file its recommendations is about two years. “Accordingly, allowing about two years for the seventh pay commission’s report, the recommendations are likely to be implemented with effect from January 1, 2016.”

Traditionally, pay commissions have been set up after every 10 years to revise the pay scales of central government employees. States also accept these recommendations for their employees after certain modifications. However, since the sixth commission, headed by Justice B N Sri Krishna, was set up three years later because of NDA’s initial rejection, the gap between the fifth and the sixth commissions had become 13 years. The seventh, being advanced by three years, could also differ from the usual 10-year pattern.

The key area that the sixth pay commission focused on was removing the ambiguity in various pay scales and reducing the number of scales. For that, it introduced running pay bands for all government posts. It had recommended pay hikes of 20-40 per cent and also suggested a new system of four pay bands with 20 grade pays which was accepted with minor changes.

It had also recommended the minimum basic pay of Rs 6,660 a month. However, that was increased to Rs 7,000 by the Cabinet. The financial implications on account of these recommendations were to the tune of around Rs 22,000 crore for 2008-09.

Prem Watsa, the 'richest, savviest guy you've never heard of'

MUMBAI: Prem Watsa, the 63-year-old Canadian billionaire behind the $4.7-billion BlackBerry deal, is seen as the saviour of the struggling smartphone maker. Born in Hyderabad in 1950 and son of a school teacher, Watsa is a first-generation entrepreneur who moved to Canada in the early '70s where he went on to build a multi-billion-dollar financial services and investment empire virtually out of scratch. Fondly referred to as the 'Warren Buffett' of Canada in some circles for his sagacious and mostly long-term bets, against short-term gains, Watsa today controls a business empire that spans across continents, including an exposure in India.

After passing out from the Hyderabad Public School, Watsa went on to complete a degree in chemical engineering from IIT, Madras. After cracking the IIM entrance test in the second attempt, he dropped the plan and went on to pursue an MBA at the University of Western Ontario Business School (later known as the Richard Ivey School of Business) in Canada, as his elder brother was settled in that country. He left India with $8 in his pocket and he had to sell air conditioners and furnaces to fund his education at the university.

After MBA, Watsa began his professional career in 1974 as he joined the investment wing at the now-defunct Confederation Life Insurance Co in Toronto as a research analyst. Watsa concedes that it was a lucky strike for him as he was the only one who turned up for the interview out of four candidates called. He proved his mettle soon enough and became one of the stock portfolio managers for pension clients. His manager, John Watson, was the first major influence on his professional career and taught him all that he knew about investing based on British-born American investor Benjamin Graham's theories of value investing. Graham's theories of safe investing have remained with Watsa all through his career as he rejected theories of quick returns, rather focusing on long-term investments, something that he shares in common with Buffett whom he idolizes.

After nearly a decade with Confederation Life, Watsa worked with a start-up asset management firm, but quit a year later to start his own venture Hamblin Watsa Investment Counsel with a few partners in 1984. His big break finally came in 1985 when he took control of a small Canadian trucking insurance company Markel Financial, which was nearing bankruptcy. That became the base for today's Fairfax Financial Holdings. He re-organized this company and in May 1987, renamed it Fairfax Financial Holdings (Fairfax: short for "fair, friendly acquisitions"). Fairfax has served both as an insurance holding company and Watsa's investment vehicle.

The company thrived under Watsa's leadership. The compounded annual growth in book value per share for Fairfax has been 23% between 1985 and 2012, while the common stock price has compounded at 19% annually. In 2012, gross premium earned was $7.2 billion across the group compared to $17 million in 1985. While Watsa's business success has been legendary, he remained away from the media glare for the most part of his initial professional life. For first 15 years at the company, he barely spoke to a reporter, and he only started holding investor conference calls in 2001. It was for the same reason that one of the magazines described him as the "richest, savviest guy you've never heard of".

While not being very aggressive in his positioning, Watsa showed his fighting spirits when he launched a $6-billion lawsuit against a group of hedge funds in 2006, accusing them of conspiring to drive down Fairfax's shares so they could be shorted. A short position enables an investor to profit when a stock drops.

He has also shown an uncanny sense of sensing trouble, when everybody is gung ho.

He predicted the crash of 1987, the Japanese collapse of 1990 and also the 2008 meltdown in the US. He gained from the US slowdown by picking up shares at rock-bottom prices when others were counting massive losses. And, it is not just business that Watsa is dedicated to. In an interview, he counted his family as one of the pillars behind his success. He met his wife, Nalini Loganadhan, during the final year at IIT and married her a few years later. The couple today has three children - two daughters and a son.

Apollo-backed Sapien Biosciences to work on personalised medicines

 
It is a new company focused on personalised medicines. Sapien Biosciences, launched on September 23, will initially focus on patients who undergo heart surgeries and angioplasty. It finds the right dosage of the blood thinning medication required by them.

Typically, after surgery and angioplasty, a procedure to clear blocked arteries, patients are prescribed blood thinning medication for three to 12 months. However, many patients don't respond fully to treatment.

Sapien Biosciences is now offering a lifeline to patients by offering a "personalised platelet response test" called 'MyPlatelet'. The company will take blood samples of the patient, conduct tests to study the genetic mutations and blood platelets. It will subsequently, in two to three days, suggest to the doctor the dosage of medicine that is most likely to be effective for the concerned patient.

'MyPlatelet' will cost patients Rs 6,500.

Sapien Biosciences is a collaborative effort of Apollo Hospitals and Saarum Innovations - while Apollo holds 70 per cent share in the venture, Saarum holds the rest of the equity.

The new company, eventually intends to create a "world-class bio-bank that will enable cutting-edge life sciences research and support discovery and development of novel biomarkers, diagnostics and personalised medicine applications."

It is housed in the Apollo Hospitals campus at Jubilee Hills in Hyderabad. Apollo has far invested over Rs 20 crore in the new venture.

Sapien Biosciences hopes to collaborate with Apollo, other healthcare enterprises or companies and drug discovery companies "to study disease epidemiology, validate new diagnostics and identify new drug targets".

"The bio-bank will collect high-quality, ethically consented and 'anonymized' human samples along with medical and sample level data across various diseases - cancer, cardiovascular and diabetes," says Jugnu Jain, co-founder and the Chief Scientific Officer of Sapien Biosciences.

Probe begins into case against The Hindu RE

For the third day running, Resident Editor of The Hindu S. Nagesh Kumar was made to go to the Punjagutta police station here by the police in its ongoing witch-hunt against the newspaper.

The harassment has been going on in connection with the case registered against the newspaper for publishing a report about the visit of Director-General of Police V. Dinesh Reddy to a godman in the Old City. The police commenced investigation into the case registered against the Resident Editor on Tuesday, a day after his bail order was executed.

Accompanied by his advocate Balwanth Reddy and medical practitioner K. Ramakrishna, he reached the station at the designated time. He sought another date for his examination on medical grounds and showed all relevant records.

Mr. Nagesh Kumar said he would appear on September 28, for the questioning. Station House Officer N. Tirupathi Rao, who is the investigating officer, however, insisted that he appear again on September 26. After prolonged discussions, his next appearance was fixed for September 27, in line with a notice that was served on Monday but superseded immediately.

During the 100-minute meeting, the investigating officer questioned the Resident Editor in a general manner.

Tatas, Singapore Airlines not to raise loans in India to capitalise JV

The Tata Group and Singapore Airlines (SIA) have assured the government that the foreign car-rier would not raise any loan in India to capitalise the joint venture (JV) and further funding beyond its $49-million initial invest-ment will come in as per business requirements.

The joint proposal by the two companies submitted for approval of the Foreign Invest-ment Promotion Board (FIPB) makes a strong pitch on the ground that "SIA's investment in India and the operations of the JV company would have the potential for significant foreign exchange earnings in India". The proposal further states that better services at competitive rates would be provided by the new airline, in which the Tata Group would have a majority stake and management control.

The proposal, accessed by Mail Today, states, "The brand SIA is recognised worldwide and the expansion of SIA in India will signal the ability of the country to attract leading names from the international circuit to benefit the Indian market. High foreign investment inflow would further strengthen the civil aviation sector."

The two companies have also assured that the JV, branded Tata Singapore International Airlines, would provide "better services at competitive rates".

Airlines have been jacking up fares since 2011. The introduction of a new airline with a strong fleet would lead to increased competition and lower fares. The proposal also high-lights the job potential that the JV would offer. "Since the JV company will hire Indian resi-dents to assist in establishing its operations in India, this would create jobs especially for young people and provide for their training. This will enhance the development of Indian employ-ees and contributing to human resource development in India.

Further stating benefits that the JV will offer to the economy, the proposal states, "The JV com-pany activities may benefit from economies of scale offered by ven-dors to SIA in relation to procure-ment of aircraft, engineering serv-ices, spares and infrastructure."

The participation, therefore, of an internationally reputed full-service passenger service airline operator in the JV company would increase the competitiveness within the full service at competi-tive rates and overall development of full-service scheduled passenger airline services, the proposal adds.

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Asian shares slipped and the dollar inched higher in early Asian trade on Wednesday, as concerns about a possible U.S. government shutdown and uncertainty about the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy outlook made investors hesitant to take aggressive positions.
"Sentiment remained somewhat subdued as investors stayed cautious amid lingering uncertainty on the Fed's stance," analysts at Credit Agricole wrote in a note to clients.
"Adding to that uncertainty is the approaching deadlines for the U.S. fiscal struggle and we expect the market to place increasing focus on that front going forward," they said.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped about 0.1 percent, while Japan's Nikkei stock average .N225 was down 0.2 percent.
The dollar was narrowly higher against its Japanese currency, buying 98.76 yen, while it rose fractionally against a basket of six currencies to 80.588.
The euro was slightly down at $1.3472, with support cited at its August high of $1.3453, pressured by a disappointing German survey overnight.
The September Ifo survey of German business sentiment, released on Tuesday, showed a slight improvement from the previous month and touched a 17-month high, but still fell short of the consensus forecast.
The downbeat survey came a day after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the bank was prepared to do more to support the region's nascent recovery.
"It seems like an improvement in the euro zone economic data has stalled. In addition, now that Germany's election is over, the market could dust off the issues that had fallen out of focus, such as further aid to Greece," said Masafumi Yamamoto, forex strategist at Praevidentia Strategy.
On Wall Street on Tuesday, U.S. stocks mostly ended lower, extending their slide to a fourth session. The Dow Jones industrial average slipped 0.42 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index 0.25 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite Index managed a modest gain of 0.08 percent.
Tea Party-backed U.S. senators are threatening to stall a bill to fund the U.S. Government.
New York Fed President William Dudley, in an interview on CNBC on Tuesday, defended the central bank's surprise decision last week to refrain from tapering its stimulus because the U.S. economy was weaker than the Fed thought in June. Dudley, a known dove, said he "wouldn't rule out" a stimulus reduction later this year.
U.S. economic data on Tuesday was mixed and lent credence to the Fed's decision to hold policy steady. U.S. home prices gained in July, but consumer confidence slipped in September, underscoring the possibility that higher interest rates and a sluggish economy could brake the housing market recovery.
On the commodities front, copper futures edged up 0.2 percent to $7,159.50, on track to snap a three-session losing streak fuelled by supply concerns and uncertainty about the Fed's policy outlook.
Oil prices firmed against a backdrop of hopeful signals that longstanding tensions in the Middle East could be thawing. U.S. President Barack Obama on Tuesday cautiously embraced overtures from Iran's new president as the basis for a possible nuclear deal, but a failed effort to arrange a simple handshake between the two leaders underscored entrenched distrust that will be hard to overcome.
Front-month Brent crude for November delivery rose about 0.1 percent to $108.79, while November U.S. crude added 0.2 percent to $103.37 a barrel.

Social media not a game changer in 2014 elections

By Aditya Kalra and David Lalmalsawma
Political parties in India are relying more on social media ahead of the 2014 election as a way of increasing voter support, even though politicians in general do not expect such efforts to significantly influence election results.
Parties are trying to ride the digital wave by conducting workshops to teach leaders and foot soldiers how to improve engagement on websites such as Facebook and Twitter.
The country of 1.2 billion people had around 165 million Internet users as of March, the third-largest in the world, according to data from India’s telecommunications regulator. But the number of social media users is likely to grow to about 80 million by mid-2014, a report released in February said.
For the Bharatiya Janata Party, India’s main opposition party, social media is helping as an “accelerator” in conveying their messages to the public.
“I don’t call it a game changer, but an accelerator in this election … it’s definitely setting a narrative, it is influencing a lot of people,” Arvind Gupta, head of the BJP’s IT division, said in an interview.
by research group IRIS Knowledge Foundation and the Internet and Mobile Association of India said social media could have a “high impact” on 160 of the 543 constituencies in the next election, and no contestant could afford to ignore this medium. The study said 316 constituencies will have “low” or “no impact”.
Congress minister Shashi Tharoor, who has more than 1.9 million Twitter followers, cautions against overstating the effect of social media.
“I think it can be a game influencer, but I wouldn’t go beyond that at this stage … social media happens to offer an additional way, not a substitute for any of the traditional means of campaigning,” Tharoor, one of the earliest adopters of Twitter in Indian politics, said in an interview.
(Also read: An interview with Tharoor on social media plans of Congress and the digital presence of the Gandhis)
For years, election campaigns in India have been designed around public rallies, popular welfare schemes and print, television or radio advertising. Digital efforts have only recently made it to the list.
Costly personal computers and a largely rural population meant lower Internet penetration in India, but the user base has been growing at a rapid pace as markets are now flooded with cheaper smartphones and tablets.
Politicians are learning the potential of the online medium, which already plays a big role in election campaigns in countries such as the United States.
Other than Twitter and Facebook, leaders in recent months have used platforms such as Google Hangout to connect with the public, with Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi and Finance Minister P. Chidambaram among the early adopters.
Modi, who is also the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate for 2014, is among India’s famous social media celebrities with 4.4 million Facebook ‘likes’ and 2.3 million Twitter followers.
While BJP leaders such as Modi and president Rajnath Singh are on Twitter, top Congress leaders such as Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, seen as the PM-choice-in-waiting, are not.
In recent years, Tharoor says he has encouraged Rahul Gandhi to try Twitter, but the 43-year-old Congress vice-president hasn’t shown interest.
“There’s no doubt to my mind that both the Gandhis tend to be fairly reticent when it comes to projecting themselves individually; they prefer to let their work talk for them,” Tharoor said.

BSE Sensex wipes off losses, up over 100 points

 
Wiping off its initial losses, the BSE benchmark Sensex gained over 100 points in morning trade on Tuesday. At 10.21 am, Sensex was up 101.76 points at 20002.72. Similarly, Nifty was up 43.35 points at 5933.10 during the same time.

The 30-share index, which lost 745.68 points in the previous two sessions, fell further by 118.18 points, or 0.59 per cent, to 19,782.78 in early trade as banking stocks slumped after international rating agencies downgraded the debt rating of the nation's top three public sector lenders.

Similarly, the wide-based National Stock Exchange Nifty declined by 34.75 points, or 0.59 per cent, to 5,855.00.

The BSE banking index suffered the most by falling 1.48 per cent to 11,458.48 with stocks of SBI declining by 2.75 per cent, Bank of Baroda by 2.35 per cent, Punjab National Bank by 2.59 per cent, ICICI Bank by 0.64 per cent, HDFC Bank by 1.03 per cent and Yes Bank by 1.73 per cent.

Meanwhile, in Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index down by 1.08 per cent, while Japan's Nikkei fell 0.70 per cent in early trade.

The US Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 0.32 per cent lower in Monday's trade.

Gold price falls 0.36% in futures trade on global cues

Gold prices fell 0.36 per cent to Rs 29,678 per 10 gram in futures trade on Tuesday as speculators engaged in trimming positions.

Market analysts said the fall was mostly attributed to a weak trend overseas after a Federal Reserve official said policy makers may start reducing US fiscal stimulus as early as next month.

At the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold prices for delivery in December fell by Rs 108, or 0.36 per cent, to Rs 29,678 per 10 gram in business turnover of 253 lots.

Similarly, metal prices for delivery in October declined by Rs 99, or 0.33 per cent, to Rs 29,775 per ten gram in 2,235 lots.

Meanwhile, gold prices fell 0.4 per cent to settle at USD 1,327 an ounce in New York yesterday

Moody's concerns overblown, misplaced: SBI

 
Country's largest bank State Bank of India (SBI) on Tuesday dismissed the concerns raised by Moody's while downgrading its debt rating, saying that the issues cited by the global credit ratings agency are "overblown and misplaced".

"We had explained our views to Moody's, allaying their concerns on debts, deposits as well as recapitalisation, but still they went ahead with downgrade. We believe Moody's is overly concerned, and that is completely misplaced," SBI MD and CFO Arundhati Bhattacharya said.

At a press conference on Monday evening attended by all the four Managing Directors of the bank, she said: "What Moody's feels is their view and we don't subscribe to that. SBI is and will remain the banking champion of the nation. We have no difficulty in raising deposits with our nationwide presence nor do we have any means in raising funds.

"We still have the highest rating amongst the public sector banks when it comes to bank?s financial stability rating (BFSR) from Moody's."

The agency on Monday downgraded the senior unsecured debt and local currency deposit rating of SBI by a notch to 'Baa3' from 'Baa2', citing asset quality and recapitalisation concerns.

It said: "A combination of increasing pressure on credit fundamentals and ongoing reliance on fiscally constrained government to maintain capital at levels desired by regulators argue for appropriateness of supported debt and deposit ratings at a level no higher than the sovereign," it said.

Discounting the agency's fears on the bank's ability to recapitalised, Bhattacharya said: "We don't believe that Moody's concern on recapitalisation is right. They have their views, but that is not our views. We do believe that they are not completely right in its rating action. We have many ways to raise capital including bringing the government stake down from 62.3 per cent now to raise capital."

Even 4.5-5 per cent GDP growth in FY14 good for India: KPMG

 
Consulting firm KPMG has said achieving gross domestic product (GDP) growth of even 4.5 -5 per cent in 2013-14 "should be good" for India as there has been a gradual slowdown in the country's economic activity.

"Initially, the government was talking of much higher growth. We have gradually come down to now below 5 per cent. My own estimate is that if we are able to even sustain 4.5-5 per cent, between there, it should be good," said Akhil Bansal, Chief Operating Officer, KPMG India.

India's economic growth had slumped to decade low of 5 per cent in 2012-13, and during the first quarter of 2013-14 slowed down further to 4.4 per cent.

Bansal added that the government needs to improve the country's infrastructure to promote growth.

Earlier, speaking on 'Practice of Strategic Consulting in India: Opportunities and Challenges', he said strategic consulting industry in the country is expected to grow at over 20 per cent in the current financial year.

"Consulting is still in nascent stage in India... Strategic consulting is required. I do not see any reason why it should not grow by another 20 per cent plus this year as well," he said.

He said about 70-80 good consulting firms are operating in India, but it (industry) is still pretty small.

"The estimated market size in India is about $300 million, which is very small. But the good thing is the way it is growing. Last year the growth was at about 22 per cent in strategic consulting and it came in an year when the economy was slowing."

Kingfisher Airlines in talks with an investor: Vijay Mallya

 
Bangalore: Criris-hit Kingfisher Airlines is in talks with a foreign investor for potential stake sale, its Chairman Vijay Mallya said Tuesday.

He, however, refused to divulge the investor's name.

"I expect this to take some form or shape in about 90 days. That is in my own estimate. It could be longer or it could be even earlier," Mallya told reporters after the annual shareholders meeting of the company.

Kingfisher Airlines has remained grounded for almost a year now under the burden of huge debts totalling over Rs 7,000 crore and accumulated losses of more than Rs 16,000 crore.

Asked about the investor's profile, Mallya said he is unable to reveal anything at this moment as it is something that would breach the confidentiality of agreement. "The investor is very sensitive to identity being revealed. Let us really give it a good try to get KFA started," he added.

To a query, Mallya said the United Breweries Holdings Limited (UBHL) Board has considered the request of KFA Board for continued funding in the light of the prospective investor and agreed to provide some funding for KFA.

"UBHL itself cannot use its own funds and its assets that it currently has because of the restraining order from the Karnataka High Court. We have in fact applied to the court's permission to use part of this fund, and now it is in the hands of the honourable court," he said.

On the response of the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) to the airlines' submission of revival plan in a bid to restart limited operations, Mallya said the company had not heard from the aviation regulator, but gathered informally that they would like to see recapitalisation plan.

Asked whether the UBHL has agreed to pay employees' salaries, Mallya said: "Yes, that is the principle request before the honourable court."

Queried if there is any contingency plan in case the court does not take it up, he said: "I have no contingency plan to violate or deviate from the orders of honourable court."

To a question, Mallya said issues with its creditors are bilateral in nature and would talk to them from time to time.

"Some of them have preferred bilateral negotiations in good faithful spirit and some have gone to court. We have to deal with all these issues as they come along," he added.

On Malaysian low-cost carrier Air Asia impacting the aviation sector in India after its foray into the country, Mallya said KFA was never a low-cost carrier and always challenged the very use of the word. "If at all, it will have an impact on the full service space, but good luck to all those who are starting," he said.

Asked how he saw the aviation sector panning out in next year or so, Mallya said: "If you take all three components - current crude oil prices, the value of rupee versus the dollar etc - as they exist, obviously it is very challenging. And I don't know whether there can be full recovery."