How the government can stabilise the rupee

Abheek Barua

The author explains how the government could make a real difference in the financial markets.
Let me cut to the chase. What are the options left for the government to bring some stability back to the rupee?

What are the short-term fixes, and the somewhat longer-term policies, that could help achieve this?
Two things need to be emphasised at the very beginning. First, the shortage of capital flows into emerging markets is unlikely to go away in a hurry.
The United States Federal Reserve might or might not taper in September and an initial taper could indeed be baked into the emerging market currency exchange rates vis-à-vis the dollar.

However, it seems certain that the Fed will start winding quantitative easing down by the end of the year - and whatever the pace of the taper, the infusion of dollar liquidity will keep reducing over 2014. Thus, India and other emerging markets have to be ready for a long dry season ahead.
Second, the option of simply "growing" ourselves out of this problem is limited. Better execution of projects and a more conducive investment environment (difficult to achieve when elections lie ahead) might improve sentiment towards India and invite capital flows, but there is a risk of growth stretching the current account deficit wider.

Rajan effect: Rupee climbs 138 paise against dollar

The rupee on Thursday strengthened by hefty 138 paise to trade at 65.69 against the dollar at the Interbank Foreign Exchange market after fresh measures by the Reserve Bank of India to stem the currency's slide.

The rupee had settled at 67.07 against the dollar on Wednesday, up by 56 paise over the previous day's close.

Traders said dollar selling by exporters and banks and fresh measures announced by new RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan to curb the rupee's slide helped domestic currency recover.

The dollar's weakness against other currencies overseas also supported the rupee's sentiment, they said.

Meanwhile, stock markets were up by over 2 per cent in early trade.

The BSE benchmark index soared by 488 points to 19,055.74, while National Stock Exchange's Nifty rose by 153 points to 5,601.90 in opening trade.

The new RBI governor on Wednesday announced measures, such as liberalisation of the financial market by enhancing the limits for exporters to re-book cancelled forward exchange contracts and opening a special concessional window for swapping foreign currency non-resident deposits and dollar funds, to support the rupee.

Can Arjuna get country out of Chakravyuha?

MUMBAI: Outgoing Reserve Bank of India governor D Subbarao expressed hope that his successor Raghuram Rajan would be like Arjuna and find his way out of the Chakravyuha that the economy is in.

In 2010, Subbarao had compared the expansionary monetary policy to the Chakravyuha—a battle formation from which escape is next to impossible. He had also compared himself with Abhimnanyu the warrior who was trapped in the formation. "I wanted to hand over to my successor an economy that was stable. But now Raghuram has to be Arjuna who can get the country out of the Chakravyuha. I hope you will be able to tell your successor that I am handing over a miracle economy," said the outgoing governor while speaking at a farewell event organized by RBI.

Describing the challenges he faced while taking charge, Subbarao said that he made the transition from the finance ministry to the central bank in 24 hours. "To say that I was bewildered was an understatement. I must admit that in my early weeks I was driven more by a fear of failure than a desire for success. But that changed with the confidence of having a very strong institution behind me
The governor also came out with a "to-do" list for his post-RBI life some of which was tongue-in-cheek. "I want to study mathematics and linguistics. I have been fascinated with these two subjects—one is the language of science and the other is the science of languages. I want to learn salsa dancing. I want to travel in the country without a purpose just for the sake of travelling," said Subbarao. "I might start a tutorial class on taking baby steps or doing flip flops since I have so much experience with them," he added. "I will enjoy seeing 'Chennai Express' in the matinee show when you are all working. I am going to enjoy not having to say something profound every time I open my mouth. Most of all I will enjoy regaining my autonomy."

Bidding the governor farewell, senior-most deputy governor KC Chakrabarty said that Subbarao had left behind a legacy of establishing RBI as a knowledge institution and instilling the need for the central bank to provide accountability.

Speaking about his successor, Subbarao said that by choosing him to succeed a heavyweight such as Y V Reddy, the government had done a great favour on him. "It has done an every greater favour by appointing an intellectual like Raghuram Rajan to succeed me," said Rajan. Interestingly, both the outgoing and the new deputy governor have built a reputation in RBI for their obsession with physical fitness. While Subbarao has participated in the Mumbai Marathon and is known to jog every day. His successor Rajan, who was among the youngest in the room, is a marathon runner as well who also plays the squash and is an avid swimmer.

 

Rupee climbs 138 paise, Sensex gains over 450 points as Rajan sparks reform hopes Sensex Blue chip shares, especially banks, jumped with NSE bank index surging as much as 9.4 per cent.

MUMBAI: The rupee on Thursday strengthened by hefty 138 paise to trade at 65.69 against the dollar at the Interbank Foreign Exchange market after fresh measures by the RBI to stem the currency's slide.

The rupee had settled at 67.07 against the dollar on Wednesday, up by 56 paise over the previous day's close.

Traders said dollar selling by exporters and banks and fresh measures announced by new RBI governor Raghuram Rajan to curb the rupee's slide helped domestic currency recover.

The dollar's weakness against other currencies overseas also supported the rupee's sentiment, they said.

Meanwhile, stock markets were up by over 2 per cent in early trade.

The BSE benchmark index soared by 488 points to 19,055.74, while National Stock Exchange's Nifty rose by 153 points to 5,601.90 in opening trade.

Banking, realty, capital goods and consumer durables stocks were leading gainers.

The new RBI governor on Wednesday announced measures, such as liberalisation of the financial market by enhancing the limits for exporters to re-book cancelled forward exchange contracts and opening a special concessional window for swapping foreign currency non-resident (FCNR) deposits and dollar funds, to support the rupee.

In the Asian region, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose by 0.95 per cent, while Japan's Nikkei was up by 0.61 per cent in early trade.

The US Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 0.65 per cent higher on Wednesday.

Moody's says India inflation and fiscal metrics remain weaker than peers

India's inflation and fiscal metrics remain weaker than peers, Moody's Investors Service said in a presentation on Wednesday.
A higher subsidy burden and lower growth will weaken the country's fiscal metrics, analyst Atsi Sheth said in the presentation.
Economists have been worried that the annual $20 billion food subsidy programme passed by lawmakers may widen the fiscal deficit.
The agency, however, said the country's current reserves can finance the current account and external debt payment needs.
Moody's has an investment grade rating on India with a stable outlook