New Delhi: India's economic growth likely picked up slightly in the
July-September quarter as improved manufacturing activity steered it
from a four-year low in the previous three months, a Reuters poll showed
on Tuesday.
Any improvement would be welcome news for the
government as a string of opinion polls forecast a poor performance for
the ruling party in general elections which must be held by next May.
Economic
growth virtually halved in two years to 5 percent in the last fiscal
year - the lowest level in a decade - and most economists surveyed by
Reuters last month expect 2013/14 to be worse.
The consensus of
40 economists showed gross domestic product expanded 4.6 percent
year-on-year in the last quarter, better than the 4.4 percent in the
previous three months, which was the lowest since the global financial
crisis.
"It is only a marginal improvement with much of the
support from a slight recovery in manufacturing sector," said Upasna
Bhardwaj, an economist at ING Vysya Bank.
A moderate recovery in
Indian factories and exports were probably the main drivers for an
increase in overall growth in the quarter through September. Annual
industrial output picked up 2 percent in September, driven by an uptick
in export and domestic orders.
Stronger global demand for India's
exports also led to an increase in production, with exports growing
11.15 percent annually in September.
Also, a good monsoon should have boosted rural income and perked up flagging consumer demand.
However, a dearth of investment lies at the heart of India's economic malaise.
Little
improvement is expected ahead of the general election, with investors
doubting whether Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's minority government can
force through any bold actions between now and then.
Radhika
Rao, an economist at DBS in Singapore, said euphoria surrounding Singh's
earlier reform plans had eased after they failed to materialise.
"It is not surprising that the private sector keeps expansion plans on ice," Rao added.
With
wholesale price inflation moving back above the Reserve Bank of India's
perceived comfort level of 5 percent and consumer inflation quickening
to more than 10 percent, there is little expectation the central bank
will act to ease policy boost growth.
In face, new RBI chief
Raghuram Rajan has hiked interest rates twice in as many months since
September, tackling rising prices head on.