Market sentiments improve, Sensex surges over 200 points

SI Reporter in Mumbai

Benchmark indices have closed higher, amid volatile trading session led by FMCG and IT shares.

Meanwhile, the Centre's fiscal deficit ballooned to almost 63% of Budget Estimates for 2013-14 in just first four months of the year.

The deficit stood at Rs 3.40 lakh crore (Rs 3.4 trillion) in April-July period, which was 62.8% of Rs 5.42 lakh crore pegged in the Budget, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA).

The 30-share Sensex ended up 219 points at 18,620 and the 50-share Nifty ended up 63 points at 5,472.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said that the rupee's tumble is a "matter of concern" but is part of a needed adjustment due to India's large current account deficit.

Singh said that rupee depreciation will see upward pressure on inflation, but added that RBI will work on containing it.

Indian economy will grow at about 5.5% in the current fiscal and the first quarter numbers are expected to be relatively flat, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said today.

The key trigger for markets now will be first quarter GDP data scheduled later today.

Moody's Analytics, the research and analysis wing of Moody’s expects the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter to be at 4.5%.

On the global front, Asian stocks rose and oil prices tumbled as a possible U.S. military strike on Syria appeared less likely, while the dollar remained not far from a three-week high against a basket of currencies after upbeat US growth data.
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Infographic: Stock markets during August 2013

The BSE Sensex lost 3.75 per cent in August, its worst monthly performance since February, as worries over foreign outflows were exacerbated by the rupee that fell to record lows during the month.
Benchmark indices closed higher on the last day of August, amid volatile trading session led by FMCG and IT shares.

Meanwhile, the Centre's fiscal deficit ballooned to almost 63% of Budget Estimates for 2013-14 in just first four months of the year.

The deficit stood at Rs 3.40 lakh crore (Rs 3.4 trillion) in April-July period, which was 62.8% of Rs 5.42 lakh crore (Rs 5.42 trillion) pegged in the Budget, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts.
The 30-share Sensex ended up 219 points at 18,620 and the 50-share Nifty ended up 63 points at 5,472.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said that the rupee's tumble is a "matter of concern" but is part of a needed adjustment due to India's large current account deficit.

Govt raises import tariff value of gold

The government on Friday raised the import tariff value of gold to $461 per ten grams and of silver to $803 per kg as prices of the precious metals touched all-time high this week.
Tariff value -- the base price on which the customs duty is determined to prevent under-invoicing -- of gold and silver stood at $432 per 10 gram and $697 per kg, respectively earlier.
The notification, issued by the Central Board of Excise and Customs, has come two days after when gold prices has touched the new peak of Rs 34,500 per 10 grams in the national capital. The prices of yellow metal has increased by 9 per cent so far in the month of August.
Price of gold today fell and closed at Rs 31,700 per ten grams and silver at Rs 54,000 per kg in the national capital on Friday. However, gold in Singapore, which normally sets the price trend on the domestic front, fell by almost one per cent to $1,393.10 an ounce and silver by 1.34 per cent to $23.55 an ounce.
India, the largest gold consumer in the world, imported 860 tonnes of gold in 2012. In the first four months of the current fiscal, the import rose 87 per cent to 383 tonnes.

Financial Technologies' exchanges abroad under lens

Laxity in enforcing KYC and allied norms suspected; money laundering gaps also on probe panel’s mind

The role of global exchanges floated by the Financial Technologies group has also come under the government’s scanner.

Several investors are said to be holding positions on the Multi Commodity Exchange, while the same investors were offered similar positions on international exchanges floated by the Financial Technologies group, to take arbitrage advantage. While these facilities were offered by brokers, the government is looking at whether there was any laxity on the part of these overseas exchanges floated by the FT group regarding Know Your Clients (KYC) or other processes.

If such linkages are found, that would be also considered violation of the foreign exchange and money laundering laws.

“The government is now looking at pare trades in FTIL-controlled exchanges NSEL, MCX and also exchanges owned by it outside India,” said a government official. The FT group had floated Bahrain Financial Exchange, Singapore Mercantile Exchange and Dubai Gold and Commodity Exchange. All these three have been offering gold contracts.

An FT spokesperson said, “We’ve not received any communication from any authorities/regulators on such investigations and, hence, cannot comment.”

A sector official said investors and traders having positions abroad without the knowledge of the Indian authorities had been happening and these also hold positions in other names, with US-based Comex and the London Metal Exchange being common destinations. In those exchanges, Indian authorities have no say but they are investigating this.

Officials in the know said one of the high-powered working groups constituted by the government on the NSEL crisis, headed by the RBI deputy governor, was looking into the possibility of money laundering among firms trading on this exchange, MCX and also exchanges in foreign lands controlled by FTIL. "All these possibilities are within the realm of the committee and working groups constituted by the government on August 26 and we are looking at the matter from every possible issue and involving all sister-concerns of NSEL," a senior official said.

The chain of exchanges, domestic and global, are under the scanner of other regulators as well, following the forward Markets Commission (FMC)’s warning to the NSEL board that their ‘fit and proper’ status was at risk. The warning was given by the regulator last week, after  NSEL defaulted on its commitment to make the first week’s agreed payout.

A former regulator told Business Standard, “Once the promoter loses s status as a fit and proper person to run the exchange, other regulators have to reconsider if promoters of the entities regulated by them have the same promoter that have lost this status. Global regulators  generally follow.” So, if the NSEL promoters lose their fit and proper status there, the commodity, stock and power exchanges set up by the same promoters might face similar action.

A source in FMC said, “The decision to withdraw the fit and proper status on the NSEL board of directors is under consideration and task forces appointed by the government will also look into it, as it has implications for other regulators, too.”

Plan spend may be axed again: Montek

higher subsidy burden and a shortfall in revenue receipts might force the government to lower its Plan expenditure this year, too, as it is determined to restrict its fiscal deficit to 4.8 per cent of GDP. The move may, however, pull down GDP growth, which fell to a four-year low of 4.4 per cent in the quarter ended June 2013.

Planning Commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said a cut in Plan expenditure could be considered while finalising the Revised Estimates. Asked whether it was proposed that Plan expenditure be cut, he said: “If we are asked to do so, we will cooperate. Discussions usually start around November. The finance ministry has said the 4.8 per cent target for fiscal deficit is sacrosanct.”

A cut in government spending would come at the cost of growth. In the quarter ended June, growth was primarily aided by community, social and personal services, representing largely government spending. The category expanded 9.4 per cent, against 8.9 per cent in the year-ago period and four per cent in the quarter ended March this year.

Finance Minister P Chidambaram had said the target of reining in fiscal deficit at 4.8 per cent of GDP this financial year was a red line that wouldn’t be breached. In the first quarter of this financial year, the government’s fiscal deficit touched 10.49 per cent of GDP, standing at 62.8 per cent of the Budget estimate for 2013-14, against 51.5 per cent in the year-ago period.

In 2012-13, the government was able to rein in its fiscal deficit at 4.9 per cent, against the Budget estimate of 5.2 per cent, owing to a cut of Rs 92,000 crore in Plan expenditure. This year, however, the cut is unlikely to be so steep, as the Budget estimate is only 11.7 per cent higher than that last year.

Owing to the rupee depreciation and a rise in crude oil prices, this year, there would be a higher-than-projected burden for fuel subsidy and, to an extent, fertiliser subsidy. Besides, meeting the disinvestment target of Rs 40,000 crore would be difficult if the market situation doesn’t improve.

So far, receipts from divestment stand at only Rs 1,325 crore. Tax collections also face the risk of a shortfall. Continuing with its austerity measures announced last year, the finance ministry might also issue instructions for a 10 per cent cut in non-Plan expenditure and a ban on creation of new government posts.