Social media not a game changer in 2014 elections

By Aditya Kalra and David Lalmalsawma
Political parties in India are relying more on social media ahead of the 2014 election as a way of increasing voter support, even though politicians in general do not expect such efforts to significantly influence election results.
Parties are trying to ride the digital wave by conducting workshops to teach leaders and foot soldiers how to improve engagement on websites such as Facebook and Twitter.
The country of 1.2 billion people had around 165 million Internet users as of March, the third-largest in the world, according to data from India’s telecommunications regulator. But the number of social media users is likely to grow to about 80 million by mid-2014, a report released in February said.
For the Bharatiya Janata Party, India’s main opposition party, social media is helping as an “accelerator” in conveying their messages to the public.
“I don’t call it a game changer, but an accelerator in this election … it’s definitely setting a narrative, it is influencing a lot of people,” Arvind Gupta, head of the BJP’s IT division, said in an interview.
by research group IRIS Knowledge Foundation and the Internet and Mobile Association of India said social media could have a “high impact” on 160 of the 543 constituencies in the next election, and no contestant could afford to ignore this medium. The study said 316 constituencies will have “low” or “no impact”.
Congress minister Shashi Tharoor, who has more than 1.9 million Twitter followers, cautions against overstating the effect of social media.
“I think it can be a game influencer, but I wouldn’t go beyond that at this stage … social media happens to offer an additional way, not a substitute for any of the traditional means of campaigning,” Tharoor, one of the earliest adopters of Twitter in Indian politics, said in an interview.
(Also read: An interview with Tharoor on social media plans of Congress and the digital presence of the Gandhis)
For years, election campaigns in India have been designed around public rallies, popular welfare schemes and print, television or radio advertising. Digital efforts have only recently made it to the list.
Costly personal computers and a largely rural population meant lower Internet penetration in India, but the user base has been growing at a rapid pace as markets are now flooded with cheaper smartphones and tablets.
Politicians are learning the potential of the online medium, which already plays a big role in election campaigns in countries such as the United States.
Other than Twitter and Facebook, leaders in recent months have used platforms such as Google Hangout to connect with the public, with Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi and Finance Minister P. Chidambaram among the early adopters.
Modi, who is also the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate for 2014, is among India’s famous social media celebrities with 4.4 million Facebook ‘likes’ and 2.3 million Twitter followers.
While BJP leaders such as Modi and president Rajnath Singh are on Twitter, top Congress leaders such as Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, seen as the PM-choice-in-waiting, are not.
In recent years, Tharoor says he has encouraged Rahul Gandhi to try Twitter, but the 43-year-old Congress vice-president hasn’t shown interest.
“There’s no doubt to my mind that both the Gandhis tend to be fairly reticent when it comes to projecting themselves individually; they prefer to let their work talk for them,” Tharoor said.

5 reasons why stock markets think Modi is good for them

Shishir Asthana in Mumbai

Narendra Modi's elevation as BJP’s candidate for prime minister’s post was officially announced post market hours on Friday. However, by noon it was already clear that his name would be announced by evening.
Some expected the market to react to the event but it did not. And it is unlikely that it will, for the simple reason that he is not the prime minister, yet. Having said that, many in the markets and Corporate India world prefer to see him over anyone else as the next prime minister of the country.
We look at some of the reasons quoted by the market and why it senses a bullish undertone in Modi’s candidature announcement.
A survey carried out by ET CEOs Confidence before Modi’s candidature was announced suggested that an overwhelming three-fourths of the 100 CEO’s surveyed prefer Modi as the next prime minister.
Rahul Gandhi bagged to get votes of only seven CEOs.
Corporate India has been at the receiving end of ‘policy paralysis’. The report says CEOs have voted for a strong leadership, intent, decision and action, which Modi has demonstrated in Gujarat. Rahul Gandhi has no such claims to his name.

Will the Fed start its famed taper in September?

 
64% of 800 investors polled think it will start this week but weak US data suggest it might not be aggressive.
Two big events this week - the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday and RBI's policy review on Friday - will determine which way equity markets head.
Since June, the Federal Reserve has been looking to taper its $85 billion a month bond buying programme. The FOMC's meeting is crucial for emerging markets like India because over the last few years, financial markets have been fuelled by easy liquidity.

Since 2009, $100 billion has flowed into Indian equities. Not surprising, then, that the talk of a possible taper from this month has sent risk assets and commodities into a tailspin.
So, are the taper related fears unfounded or are they real? To begin with, markets have already priced in some tapering from this month. However, if the Fed tapers its bond buying by $10 billion, the impact on financial markets would be negligible.
But if it is higher than $10 billion, markets may roil. According to a Barclays survey, conducted among 800 global investors, 64 per cent of respondents believe tapering will start this week and almost all of them expect it to occur before the end of the year.

Investors now perceive the removal of Fed stimulus will start earlier, the survey says. Forty five per cent expect the Fed to finish their open-ended QE3 programme in second quarter of 2014, while most respondents in our June survey thought it would happen in the fourth quarter of 2014 or later.

Interestingly, most investors believe equities have become less attractive but have shown a slight increase in their preference for emerging markets and commodities from June.

Barclays says: "The perception of key risks has also shifted. Last quarter, a reduction in Fed policy stimulus was seen as the key risk for markets by nearly 40 per cent of survey participants; today, the number is just 26 per cent."
Several economists in the US believe concerns regarding a taper could be premature, as growth data continues to be weak and the Fed does not want "risk off" trades just yet.
Talks of a taper have pushed up interest rates in the US by over 100 basis points and any further increase would impact growth. For starters, it is believed growth has slowed in the third quarter (ended September) from the 2.5 per cent seen in the second quarter. Economic growth bottomed out in the fourth quarter of 2012 when it touched 0.1 per cent. While there is no doubt that growth is picking up, questions remain on how sustainable this would be without the stimulus.

Since the Fed met at the end of July, there have been 21 growth-related data releases. Of the 21 releases, 12 have been below consensus.

New home sales in the US in the month of July have fallen by 13.4 per cent. Bank of America Merrill Lynch says it's a close call but it is still in the December camp when it comes to the Fed's possible tapering.

World shares slide on growth, Fed concerns, dollar flat

Adrop in euro zone factory output after a run of weaker-than expected U.S. data stalled an eight-day rise in world shares on Thursday, jangling the nerves of investors positioning for a shift in Fed policy next week.
Moves towards a diplomatic solution on Syria gave some support to financial markets, but doubts over what exactly the Fed will announce on September 18 increase the potential for near-term volatility.
"The Fed is still likely to taper next week or in October but the trajectory of the tapering that we had assumed can no longer be taken for granted," said Ned Rumpeltin, head of G10 FX strategy at Standard Chartered Bank.
Euro/dollar and dollar/yen one-week implied volatilities - a gauge of how sharp price swings will be next week - have shot up as investors try to guess when and how fast the Fed will start to run down its monetary stimulus.
The one-week euro/dlr implied volatility traded at around 7.85 percent, much higher than the equivalent one-month rate which was around 7.2 percent.
The one-week dollar/yen implied volatility was also trading much higher than the one-month level.
Uncertainty has grown with weaker-than-expected U.S. data, including jobs growth in August and consumer spending, home building, new home sales, durable goods orders and industrial production in July.
A Reuters poll of economists on Monday this week found most now see the Fed trimming its $85 billion monthly spend on bonds by about $10 billion. This was down from $15 billion in a poll before the jobs report.
The shifting views have put pressure on the dollar, which hovered near two-week lows against a basket of major currencies .DXY on Thursday. U.S. Treasury yields have dipped to nearer 2.8 percent from over 3 percent last week.
But the euro slipped against the dollar on Thursday and European shares ended a run that had taken them near a five-year high when data showed a surprisingly large drop in industrial output across the currency bloc in July.
That bolsters the case for the European Central Bank to keep monetary policy loose in the face of changes at the Fed and adds weight to the argument that it should even consider another rate cut.
Europe's broad FTSE Eurofirst 300 index .FTEU3 was down 0.1 percent by mid-morning at 1,248.33 points, edging away from a 5-year high of 1,258.09 points reached in late May this year.
The MSCI world equity index .MIWD00000PUS was slightly lower, with U.S. stock index futures pointing to further weakness when trading gets underway on Wall St. .N
ASIAN RELIEF
Reduced expectations of the degree of Fed tapering eased pressure on emerging market currencies, which had been driven up as the cheap U.S. money was pumped into high-yielding stocks and bonds, and are now falling as these trades reverse.
Indonesia's central bank unveiled a surprise rate hike to help the rupiah recover from a 4-1/2 year low. Other Asian central banks were expected to wait for next week's Fed decision before taking any action.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS shed 0.2 percent while the stronger yen and downbeat economic data helped push Japan's Nikkei stock average .N225 down 0.3 percent.
In fixed income markets anticipation of the Fed trimming its stimulus combined with concerns abut domestic politics drove up Italy's borrowing costs at an auction of 7.5 billion euros ($10 billion) of new debt.
A cross-party Senate committee in Italy is due to resume a hearing later on whether to bar Silvio Berlusconi from political life, at the risk of prompting the former prime minister's allies to pull out the coalition government.
No decision by the Senate is expected until mid-October leaving investors in considerable uncertainty over whether the government has the strength to overhaul the economy and manage its budget deficit.
In commodities, copper slipped 0.9 percent to $7,101 a tonne. An improved outlook for China's economy and the reduced risk of a strike on Syria have helped bring copper prices off the three-year lows plumbed in late June.
Gold skidded 1.8 percent to $1,342.56 an ounce, its weakest since mid-August while Brent crude added about 0.8 percent to $112.40 as investors watched diplomatic efforts to place Syria's chemical weapons under international control stepped up.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov were meeting in Geneva on Thursday to try to agree on a strategy to eliminate the chemical arsenal.

Huge tobacco use in India seen killing 1.5 million a year

 

Tobacco inflicts huge damage on the health of India's people and could be clocking up a death toll of 1.5 million a year by 2020 if more users are not persuaded to kick the habit, an international report said on Thursday.
Despite having signed up to a global treaty on tobacco control and having numerous anti-tobacco and smoke-free laws, India is failing to implement them effectively, leaving its people vulnerable to addiction and ill health, according to the report by the International Tobacco Control Project (ITCP).
"Compared with many countries around the world, India has been proactive in introducing tobacco control legislation since 2003," said Geoffrey Fong, a professor of psychology at Canada's University of Waterloo and a co-author of the report.
"However ... the legislation currently in place is not delivering the desired results - in terms of dissuading tobacco use and encouraging quitting."
As a result, India, with a population of 1.2 billion, currently has around 275 million tobacco users, the report said.
Harm from tobacco accounts for nearly half of all cancers among males and a quarter of all cancers among females there, as well as being a major cause of heart and lung diseases.
"The tobacco epidemic in India requires urgent attention," the report said, adding that by 2020, tobacco consumption will account for more than 1.5 million Indian deaths a year.
Worldwide, the number of deaths caused by tobacco is expected to rise from around 6 million a year now to more than 8 million by 2030, according to the World Health Organisation.
The ITCP India Survey conducted face to face interviews with 8,000 tobacco users and 2,400 non-users across four Indian states - Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and West Bengal.
So-called smokeless tobacco - including chewing products such as gutkha, zarda, paan masal and khaini - is the most common form of tobacco use in India, with many poorer people and women preferring these over smoking cigarettes or bindis - small, cheap, locally-made cigarettes.
According to the Global Adult Tobacco Survey, 26 percent of adults in India consume smokeless tobacco - 33 percent of men and 18.4 percent of women. Smokeless tobacco can cause oral and other cancers, as well as other mouth diseases and heart disease.
Among several striking findings in the ITCP report was that, while many smokers and tobacco users said they knew of the health risks, only a small proportion said they would like to quit.
Up to 94 percent of smokers and up to the same proportion of smokeless users in the survey said they had no plans to give up.
Set against this, the report also found that up to 81 percent of smokers and up to 87 percent of smokeless tobacco users expressed regret for taking up the habit, and more than 90 percent of tobacco users and non-users in all four states had negative views on smoking and tobacco.
The report said that, while India has been a regional leader in enacting tobacco control legislation over the past 10 years, the laws are poorly enforced, regulations covering smoke-free zones are patchy, and tobacco remains relatively cheap.
Fong said the low percentage of people wanting to quit meant deaths from tobacco use were destined to stay high.
"If there is any single indicator of the urgent need for continued and strengthened efforts for strong, evidence-based tobacco control in India - this is it."

Govt eyes cotton duty, electronics in rupee fight

The government could impose a 10 percent duty on cotton exports as early as Thursday aiming to boost overseas sales of value-added textiles to take advantage of a weak rupee and reduce the current account deficit, government sources and industry officials said.
The measure is due to be considered at a cabinet meeting on Thursday, where ministers are also expected to discuss a long-delayed plan to build two semiconductor factories with government subsidies to attract some $4 billion in investment.
Both policies, and a proposal to raise India's World Bank borrowing limit by $4.3 billion, could help bring in foreign exchange as India struggles to narrow the world's third largest current account deficit.
India is the second-biggest cotton producer after China and any curb on cotton exports could boost flagging global prices.
The government is trying to reduce a current account deficit which hit a record 4.8 percent of gross domestic product in the year ended March 31.
It hopes to take advantage of what is otherwise a damaging 16 percent fall in the rupee against the dollar since June 1.
India earned about $8.94 billion from cotton exports in 2012/13, equivalent to some 2.92 percent of total goods exports.
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) on Thursday said production should be 37.5 million bales in the year from October 1. Domestic consumption is likely to be 27-28 million bales.
"Any kind of duty on cotton exports would hit overseas demand for Indian cotton and would reduce farmers' returns," said Arun Kumar Dalal, a trader from Ahmedabad, a cotton market in Gujarat.
Measures discussed on Thursday could also include other steps for increasing cotton availability for textiles mills, which have been complaining of higher prices, said government sources directly involved in decision making.
SEMICONDUCTORS
The cabinet will also consider proposals on semiconductor manufacturing, a government official with direct knowledge of the matter said. Another official said the cabinet may give "in-principle" approval to the proposals.
Media reports have named IBM (IBM.N) and STMicroelectronics (STM.PA) among potential investors, while the companies have not officially confirmed the reports.
Israeli chipmaker TowerJazz (TSEM.TA) has said it has submitted a bid with two partners to build a plant in India.
India's demand for electronics products is forecast to rise nearly 10 times during the current decade to reach $400 billion by 2020.
Policymakers have said the electronics import bill could surpass that of oil due to lack of major local manufacturing.
As sales of smartphones, computers, television sets surge, annual imports of semiconductors is expected to touch $50 billion by 2020 from $7 billion in 2010

Sensex snaps 5-day winning streak, falls over 200 points

 

The BSE Sensex fell more than 1 percent on Thursday to snap a five-day winning streak as lenders such as HDFC Bank dropped on profit-taking, while sentiment also waned as the rupee reversed part of its recent gains.
Caution prevailed ahead of factory output and CPI data, scheduled for release later in the day even as foreign institutional investors remained net buyers of shares, bringing their total to nearly 57.8 billion rupees over the previous five sessions.
The rupee also fell after five days of gains, even as teh Reserve Bank of India (RBI) likely sold dollars via state-run banks starting at around 63.95 levels to prevent further weakness in the currency.
Dealers say the wholesale price inflation data and tempered expectations over the pace at which the U.S. Federal Reserve would withdraw its stimulus after its meeting next week was also seen weighing on the market.
"Macro data, Fed meet hold importance, but I see RBI policy on September 20 to be a silver lining amid the dark clouds," said Deven Choksey, managing director of KR Choksey Securities.
The Sensex fell 1.08 percent, or 215.57 points, to end at 19,781.88, retreating from their highest level in nearly 1-1/2 months in the previous session.
The broader Nifty fell 1.06 percent, or 62.45 points, to end at 5,850.70, closing below the psychologically important 5,900 level after gaining nearly 11 percent over the previous five sessions.
Among banks, private lenders ICICI Bank (ICBK.NS) fell 1.9 percent, while HDFC Bank (HDBK.NS) ended 2.1 percent lower mainly on profit-taking.
Wholesale-funded banks were hit more. Yes Bank (YESB.NS) slumped 7.4 percent, while Indusind Bank (INBK.NS) ended 5.4 percent lower.
Jaiprakash Associates (JAIA.NS) slumped 11.6 percent after earlier rising as much as 2.1 percent on profit-taking. It agreed to sell its cement plant to UltraTech Cement (ULTC.NS) on Wednesday.
Jaiprakash Associates' shares had risen about 27 percent in the previous five sessions in anticipation of such a sale, dealers said.
Shares of Tata Motors (TAMO.NS), India's largest automaker by revenue, fell 2.1 percent after the company said on Wednesday its global wholesale vehicle sales fell 16 percent on year in August, hit by a drop in passenger vehicle sales.
Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC.NS) fell 3.6 percent after India's oil secretary said India will decide on raising the retail prices of diesel and cooking gas in a few weeks, disappointing traders who were looking for an immediate decision.
Among the gainers, IDFC (IDFC.NS) shares rose 2.8 percent after the Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday lifted restrictions placed on foreign investors purchasing the company's stock as their shareholding fell below the prescribed limit.
Shares in Housing Development Finance Corp (HDFC.NS) ended 0.3 percent higher after earlier falling as much as 2.3 percent as FTSE increased its "investability weight" to 100 percent from 74 percent in its global equity index series, as per its website.

Survey shows India Inc firmly in Modi camp

 
Subhadip Sircar and Suvashree Dey Choudhury in Mumbai

Nearly three-quarters of Indian business leaders believe the government has mismanaged the economy and want opposition leader Narendra Modi to lead the country after an election due by May next year, according to an opinion poll published on Friday.
With India's 80-year-old Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expected to step aside, only 7 per cent of 100 chief executive officers surveyed for the Economic Times/Nielsen poll backed the ruling Congress party's Rahul Gandhi for the premiership.
Rahul represents the fourth generation of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty that has led Congress, and India, for much of the time since independence from Britain in 1947. His late father, grandmother and great-grandfather were all prime ministers.
Click NEXT to read more…

Image: Gujarat's chief minister Narendra Modi (L) and Anil Ambani, chairman of Reliance Group, embrace as Ratan Tata, chairman Emeritus of Tata group, looks on during the inauguration ceremony of the Vibrant Gujarat global investor summit at Gandhinagar in the western Indian state of Gujarat

Stagflation: Biggest challenge for Raghuram Rajan

 
Andy Mukherjee

Rajan's call to diaspora can't stem rupee rout, says Andy Mukherjee.
Raghuram Rajan's first move as India's monetary czar has been to solemnise a marriage between a needy country and its greedy diaspora. That's the easy part.

Tackling the gruelling Indian stagflation will be the real test for the former International Monetary Fund chief economist.
Rajan, who presciently warned developed nations about a risky buildup of leverage in 2005, began his career as a central banker in Mumbai on September 4 by reaching out for the low-hanging fruit: the monetary authority, he said, will charge local lenders a fixed 3.5 per cent annual fee to convert new long-term dollar deposits from expat Indians into rupees.

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Image: Raghuram Rajan (L), newly appointed governor of Reserve Bank of India (RBI), hugs the outgoing governor Duvvuri Subbarao during the taking over ceremony at the bank's headquarters in Mumbai.

How the government can stabilise the rupee

Abheek Barua

The author explains how the government could make a real difference in the financial markets.
Let me cut to the chase. What are the options left for the government to bring some stability back to the rupee?

What are the short-term fixes, and the somewhat longer-term policies, that could help achieve this?
Two things need to be emphasised at the very beginning. First, the shortage of capital flows into emerging markets is unlikely to go away in a hurry.
The United States Federal Reserve might or might not taper in September and an initial taper could indeed be baked into the emerging market currency exchange rates vis-à-vis the dollar.

However, it seems certain that the Fed will start winding quantitative easing down by the end of the year - and whatever the pace of the taper, the infusion of dollar liquidity will keep reducing over 2014. Thus, India and other emerging markets have to be ready for a long dry season ahead.
Second, the option of simply "growing" ourselves out of this problem is limited. Better execution of projects and a more conducive investment environment (difficult to achieve when elections lie ahead) might improve sentiment towards India and invite capital flows, but there is a risk of growth stretching the current account deficit wider.

Rupee slide worrying but also good for the economy: PM

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh sought to soothe worries about the economy on Friday, telling parliament that the crashing value of the rupee was part of a needed adjustment that would make Asia's third-largest economy more competitive.
The speech was the veteran economist's first substantial comment to parliament since the rupee suffered its steepest ever monthly fall in recent weeks, bringing back memories of a 1991 balance of payments crisis that made Singh famous.
Reading from a written statement, the prime minister promised his government would reduce the "unsustainably large" current account deficit undermining the currency.
"Clearly we need to reduce our appetite for gold, economise the use of petroleum products and take steps to increase our imports," he said.
But he said that a weaker currency was the natural outcome of several years of high inflation, and although the rupee had overshot in the foreign exchange market its decline would bring some economic benefits.
Click NEXT to read PM's views on economy...

Photographs: Reuters

Food Bill credit negative for India: Moody's

Giving a thumbs down to the Food Security Bill, rating agency Moody's said on Thursday the measure is credit negative as it will weaken government finances and deteriorate macroeconomic situation.

"The measure (Food Bill) is credit negative for the Indian government because it will raise government spending on food subsidies to about 1.2 per cent of gross domestic product per year from an estimated 0.8 per cent currently, exacerbating the government's weak finances," Moody's said in a statement.

Moody's currently assigns 'Baa3' rating on India, with a stable outlook. 'Baa3' means medium grade with moderate credit risk.

The Food Security Bill was passed by the Lok Sabha earlier this week.

The Bill seeks to provide cheap foodgrains to 82 crore (820 million) people in the country, ushering in the biggest programme in the world to fight hunger.

The annual financial burden after its implementation is estimated to be about Rs 1.30 lakh crore (Rs 1.3 trillion) at current cost.

As the Bill is likely to be implemented in the remaining months of the current fiscal, its impact on government finances will be less in 2013-14, but much more in the years to come, Moody's said.

The total food subsidy budgeted in the current fiscal is Rs 90,000 crore (Rs 900 billion), of which Rs 10,000 crore (Rs 100 billion) is towards the implementation of the programme.

"It will raise future subsidy expenditure commitments, hindering the government's ability to consolidate its finances," Moody's said, adding, the government subsidies will contribute to the already high food inflation.

The agency further said India's fiscal deficits are already higher than those of its emerging market peers.
Giving a thumbs down to the Food Security Bill, rating agency Moody's said on Thursday the measure is credit negative as it will weaken government finances and deteriorate macroeconomic situation.

"The measure (Food Bill) is credit negative for the Indian government because it will raise government spending on food subsidies to about 1.2 per cent of gross domestic product per year from an estimated 0.8 per cent currently, exacerbating the government's weak finances," Moody's said in a statement.

Moody's currently assigns 'Baa3' rating on India, with a stable outlook. 'Baa3' means medium grade with moderate credit risk.

The Food Security Bill was passed by the Lok Sabha earlier this week.

The Bill seeks to provide cheap foodgrains to 82 crore (820 million) people in the country, ushering in the biggest programme in the world to fight hunger.

The annual financial burden after its implementation is estimated to be about Rs 1.30 lakh crore (Rs 1.3 trillion) at current cost.

As the Bill is likely to be implemented in the remaining months of the current fiscal, its impact on government finances will be less in 2013-14, but much more in the years to come, Moody's said.

The total food subsidy budgeted in the current fiscal is Rs 90,000 crore (Rs 900 billion), of which Rs 10,000 crore (Rs 100 billion) is towards the implementation of the programme.

"It will raise future subsidy expenditure commitments, hindering the government's ability to consolidate its finances," Moody's said, adding, the government subsidies will contribute to the already high food inflation.

The agency further said India's fiscal deficits are already higher than those of its emerging market peers.

It said the high fiscal deficit contributes to the Current Account Deficit by keeping domestic demand high and increasing imports.

A high CAD, the difference between inflow and outflow of foreign currency, puts pressure on the domestic currency and fuels prices.

The rupee has depreciated about 25 per cent this year and touched a record low of 68.80 to a dollar on Wednesday.

The Food Bill seeks to provide highly subsidised food grains to 75 per cent of the rural and 50 per cent of the urban population through the public distribution system. It will guarantee 5 kg of rice, wheat and coarse cereals per month per person at a fixed price of Rs 3, Rs 2 and Rs 1 respectively.Giving a thumbs down to the Food Security Bill, rating agency Moody's said on Thursday the measure is credit negative as it will weaken government finances and deteriorate macroeconomic situation.

"The measure (Food Bill) is credit negative for the Indian government because it will raise government spending on food subsidies to about 1.2 per cent of gross domestic product per year from an estimated 0.8 per cent currently, exacerbating the government's weak finances," Moody's said in a statement.

Moody's currently assigns 'Baa3' rating on India, with a stable outlook. 'Baa3' means medium grade with moderate credit risk.

The Food Security Bill was passed by the Lok Sabha earlier this week.

The Bill seeks to provide cheap foodgrains to 82 crore (820 million) people in the country, ushering in the biggest programme in the world to fight hunger.

The annual financial burden after its implementation is estimated to be about Rs 1.30 lakh crore (Rs 1.3 trillion) at current cost.

As the Bill is likely to be implemented in the remaining months of the current fiscal, its impact on government finances will be less in 2013-14, but much more in the years to come, Moody's said.

The total food subsidy budgeted in the current fiscal is Rs 90,000 crore (Rs 900 billion), of which Rs 10,000 crore (Rs 100 billion) is towards the implementation of the programme.

"It will raise future subsidy expenditure commitments, hindering the government's ability to consolidate its finances," Moody's said, adding, the government subsidies will contribute to the already high food inflation.

The agency further said India's fiscal deficits are already higher than those of its emerging market peers.

It said the high fiscal deficit contributes to the Current Account Deficit by keeping domestic demand high and increasing imports.

A high CAD, the difference between inflow and outflow of foreign currency, puts pressure on the domestic currency and fuels prices.

The rupee has depreciated about 25 per cent this year and touched a record low of 68.80 to a dollar on Wednesday.

The Food Bill seeks to provide highly subsidised food grains to 75 per cent of the rural and 50 per cent of the urban population through the public distribution system. It will guarantee 5 kg of rice, wheat and coarse cereals per month per person at a fixed price of Rs 3, Rs 2 and Rs 1 respectively.
It said the high fiscal deficit contributes to the Current Account Deficit by keeping domestic demand high and increasing imports.

A high CAD, the difference between inflow and outflow of foreign currency, puts pressure on the domestic currency and fuels prices.

The rupee has depreciated about 25 per cent this year and touched a record low of 68.80 to a dollar on Wednesday.

The Food Bill seeks to provide highly subsidised food grains to 75 per cent of the rural and 50 per cent of the urban population through the public distribution system. It will guarantee 5 kg of rice, wheat and coarse cereals per month per person at a fixed price of Rs 3, Rs 2 and Rs 1 respectively.

Infographic: Stock markets during August 2013

The BSE Sensex lost 3.75 per cent in August, its worst monthly performance since February, as worries over foreign outflows were exacerbated by the rupee that fell to record lows during the month.
Benchmark indices closed higher on the last day of August, amid volatile trading session led by FMCG and IT shares.

Meanwhile, the Centre's fiscal deficit ballooned to almost 63% of Budget Estimates for 2013-14 in just first four months of the year.

The deficit stood at Rs 3.40 lakh crore (Rs 3.4 trillion) in April-July period, which was 62.8% of Rs 5.42 lakh crore (Rs 5.42 trillion) pegged in the Budget, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts.
The 30-share Sensex ended up 219 points at 18,620 and the 50-share Nifty ended up 63 points at 5,472.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said that the rupee's tumble is a "matter of concern" but is part of a needed adjustment due to India's large current account deficit.

Govt raises import tariff value of gold

The government on Friday raised the import tariff value of gold to $461 per ten grams and of silver to $803 per kg as prices of the precious metals touched all-time high this week.
Tariff value -- the base price on which the customs duty is determined to prevent under-invoicing -- of gold and silver stood at $432 per 10 gram and $697 per kg, respectively earlier.
The notification, issued by the Central Board of Excise and Customs, has come two days after when gold prices has touched the new peak of Rs 34,500 per 10 grams in the national capital. The prices of yellow metal has increased by 9 per cent so far in the month of August.
Price of gold today fell and closed at Rs 31,700 per ten grams and silver at Rs 54,000 per kg in the national capital on Friday. However, gold in Singapore, which normally sets the price trend on the domestic front, fell by almost one per cent to $1,393.10 an ounce and silver by 1.34 per cent to $23.55 an ounce.
India, the largest gold consumer in the world, imported 860 tonnes of gold in 2012. In the first four months of the current fiscal, the import rose 87 per cent to 383 tonnes.

25 countries offering best business environment

Most reports on sustainability focus on environmental issues, but a country's sustainability depends on much more than just environmental factors, according to RobecoSAM, a Switzerland-based investment group.
It says that for a nation to safeguard its future it needs to focus on several issues, including social, economy and governance. RobecoSAM has recently released a report that ranks countries based on three factors: Environmental, social and governance. Here's how it explains them:
Environmental dimension: Nations that depend heavily on fossil fuel import are susceptible to price fluctuations and/or shortage. Natural calamities, such as floods, also add to the risk factor.
Social dimension: Strikes or unrest by workers pose a big risk to investment.
Governance dimension: Rate of corruption, internal conflict and regulations are other factors that can have an adverse impact on businesses.
Let's have a look and see where India ranks among countries offering best business and life environment.
NOTE: Each country receives a total score ranging from 1 to 10, with 10 being the highest.
Source: robecosam.com
Click NEXT to see India's rank among 59 nations studied by the Swiss firm...

Image: People enjoy skiing during the first spring day in the southern mountain town of Nowy Targ, some 400km south of Warsaw in Poland.
Photographs: Vasily Fedosenko/Reuters

HSBC cuts FY14 growth forecast to 4%

HSBC on Monday lowered India's GDP forecast for the current financial year to 4 per cent from 5.5 per cent earlier saying economic uncertainty is likely to weigh on the growth forecast in the coming months. According to the global financial services major, growth is likely to slow in the near term due to tighter financial conditions and higher macroeconomic uncertainty.
"In light of this, we revise down our GDP growth forecasts to 4.0 per cent (5.5 per cent) for FY2014 and to 5.5 per cent (from 6.6 per cent) for FY2015," HSBC said in a research note on Monday.
According to official figures, the country's economic growth in the April-June quarter slid to 4.4 per cent, the lowest in past several years, pulled down by drop in mining and manufacturing output.
This prompted the industry to demand co-ordinated action by the government and the RBI to boost the economy.
HSBC, however, believes the slowdown has further to go, saying leading indicators suggest the country's growth momentum could ease further during the July-September quarter in both manufacturing and services sector.
Moreover, factors like RBI's currency stabilisation measures and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty is making consumers and businesses more cautious about spending, HSBC said.
The pressure on growth momentum is likely to pose greater challenges for policy makers as they try to stabilise the falling currency, which had touched an all time low of 68.80 to dollar on August 28 and is currently hovering around the 66/USD mark in a highly volatile trade.
"In terms of the quarterly profile, we expect growth to slow in the July-September quarter of 2013 and dip below 4 per cent," HSBC said adding that growth will show "faint" signs of recovery during the final quarter of the fiscal year as macroeconomic uncertainties recede somewhat and confidence reluctantly recovers.
Moreover, CCI expedited and other investment projects are likely to slowly kick in around that time, the report said.
According to HSBC, "the outlook for India is still tainted with downside risks given the lingering macroeconomic uncertainties and the possibility that politics could get in the way of meaningful progress on structural reform".

These 6 people are responsible for India's economic crisis

T N Ninan

These six people have created a political climate more difficult for business, indeed more hostile to business, than at any time since the mid-1980s, says T N Ninan.
Kapil Sibal said in Parliament the other day that politicians are the most accountable among all categories of people.

So, how accountable do six people, who between them have run the economy these past five years, feel as they survey the mess around them? All but one of them spoke this past week.

Sonia Gandhi told Parliament that if there was no money for the “food security” programme, then money would have to be found - but she did not care to suggest how. She also said that if the public distribution system had its defects, they would have to be fixed - again, the details were beneath her.

If the isolation at 10 Janpath is not like living on Mars, the Congress president must know that the economy faces urgent challenges, and that the last things it needs are irresponsible laws; so she must tell us whether she really thinks that two-thirds of Indians go to bed hungry. Accountability, Mr Sibal?
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Image: Sonia Gandhi with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
Photographs: Reuters

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