New Delhi, Sep 12:
The Indian economy is likely to grow at 5.2 per cent in
2013 calendar year on the back of rising domestic demand, says a report
by UN agency UNCTAD.
In its release of Trade and
Development Report 2013, the United Nations Conference on Trade and
Development (UNCTAD) said the Indian economy is expected grow at 5.2 per
cent in calendar year 2013 as against 3.8 per cent in 2012.
UNCTAD’s
India growth forecast at 5.2 per cent for 2013 is however lower than
the International Monetary Fund’s projection of 5.6 per cent for the
year.
In case of China, the UNCTAD report said, the
growth rate is expected to moderately decline to about 7.6 per cent in
2013 from 7.8 per cent last year.
“Growth in some
large developing economies such as India, Brazil, Argentina and Turkey,
which was subdued in 2012 is forecast to accelerate in 2013,” the report
said.
Developing nations continue to be the main
drivers of growth, contributing about two—thirds of global growth in
2013. In many of them, growth has been driven more by domestic demand
than by exports, as external demand, particularly from developed
countries has remained weak, it said.
Developing countries may grow at a rate of 4.5-5 per cent in 2013.
However,
several other developing economies including South Africa seem unlikely
to be able to maintain their previous year’s growth rates.
“Their
expected growth deceleration partly reflects the accumulated effect of
continuing sluggishness in developed economies and lower prices for
primary commodity exports.
Also, the decreasing policy stimuli which were relatively weak would affect the growth,” it said.
The
combination of these factors may also affect China’s growth rate, which
is expected to slow down moderately from 7.8 per cent in 2012 to about
7.6 per cent in 2013, it said, adding, “even though this would be only a
mild deceleration, it is likely to disappoint many of China’s trading
partners.”
India’s economic growth fell to a decade’s
low of 5 per cent in 2012—13 fiscal. The RBI has projected a growth
rate of 5.5 per cent for the current fiscal.