Indian economy sees positive change in growth momentum: OECD

Indian economy is seeing a tentative positive change in momentum while most of the major economies are witnessing improved growth prospects, Paris-based think tank OECD said on Monday. Besides India, China and Russia too are showing similar trends. "In the emerging economies, the CLIs point to growth around trend in Brazil and to a tentative positive change in momentum in China, Russia and India," OECD said. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD ) is a grouping of mostly developed nations. The latest conclusions are based on its Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs), that are designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity. India registered a higher-than-expected economic growth of 4.8 per cent in the September quarter, helped by better agriculture and factory output. In the June quarter, GDP expansion had touched a four-year low of 4.4 per cent. According to OECD, India's CLI in October stood at 97.6 unchanged from the previous month. The level was the same in July and August as well. "CLI for Canada indicates a positive change in momentum. In the US, the CLI points to growth around trend. In the euro area as a whole, in France and in Italy, the CLIs continue to indicate a positive change in momentum," OECD said.

China Q3 economic growth quickens to 7.8% yr/yr

Beijing: China`s annual economic growth quickened to 7.8 percent between July and September from 7.5 percent in the previous three months, the fastest growth this year and in line with expectations, official data showed on Friday.

Many investors have been concerned about the fragility of China`s economic revival, especially after a surprise fall in export growth in September.

The world`s second-largest economy grew 7.7 percent in the first nine months of 2013 from a year earlier, the data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

Other data released alongside the gross domestic product data showed industrial output grew 10.2 percent in September from a year ago, versus expectations of 10.1 percent showed in the Reuters poll.

Retail sales in September rose 13.3 percent on a year ago versus an expected 13.5 percent.

Fixed-asset investment grew 20.2 percent in the first nine months from a year earlier, versus an expected 20.3 percent. The government only publishes cumulative investment data.

India’s GDP growth likely to be at 5.2% in 2013: UNCTAD

New Delhi, Sep 12:  

The Indian economy is likely to grow at 5.2 per cent in 2013 calendar year on the back of rising domestic demand, says a report by UN agency UNCTAD.

In its release of Trade and Development Report 2013, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said the Indian economy is expected grow at 5.2 per cent in calendar year 2013 as against 3.8 per cent in 2012.

UNCTAD’s India growth forecast at 5.2 per cent for 2013 is however lower than the International Monetary Fund’s projection of 5.6 per cent for the year.

In case of China, the UNCTAD report said, the growth rate is expected to moderately decline to about 7.6 per cent in 2013 from 7.8 per cent last year.

“Growth in some large developing economies such as India, Brazil, Argentina and Turkey, which was subdued in 2012 is forecast to accelerate in 2013,” the report said.

Developing nations continue to be the main drivers of growth, contributing about two—thirds of global growth in 2013. In many of them, growth has been driven more by domestic demand than by exports, as external demand, particularly from developed countries has remained weak, it said.

Developing countries may grow at a rate of 4.5-5 per cent in 2013.

However, several other developing economies including South Africa seem unlikely to be able to maintain their previous year’s growth rates.

“Their expected growth deceleration partly reflects the accumulated effect of continuing sluggishness in developed economies and lower prices for primary commodity exports.

Also, the decreasing policy stimuli which were relatively weak would affect the growth,” it said.

The combination of these factors may also affect China’s growth rate, which is expected to slow down moderately from 7.8 per cent in 2012 to about 7.6 per cent in 2013, it said, adding, “even though this would be only a mild deceleration, it is likely to disappoint many of China’s trading partners.”

India’s economic growth fell to a decade’s low of 5 per cent in 2012—13 fiscal. The RBI has projected a growth rate of 5.5 per cent for the current fiscal.

World shares slide on growth, Fed concerns, dollar flat

Adrop in euro zone factory output after a run of weaker-than expected U.S. data stalled an eight-day rise in world shares on Thursday, jangling the nerves of investors positioning for a shift in Fed policy next week.
Moves towards a diplomatic solution on Syria gave some support to financial markets, but doubts over what exactly the Fed will announce on September 18 increase the potential for near-term volatility.
"The Fed is still likely to taper next week or in October but the trajectory of the tapering that we had assumed can no longer be taken for granted," said Ned Rumpeltin, head of G10 FX strategy at Standard Chartered Bank.
Euro/dollar and dollar/yen one-week implied volatilities - a gauge of how sharp price swings will be next week - have shot up as investors try to guess when and how fast the Fed will start to run down its monetary stimulus.
The one-week euro/dlr implied volatility traded at around 7.85 percent, much higher than the equivalent one-month rate which was around 7.2 percent.
The one-week dollar/yen implied volatility was also trading much higher than the one-month level.
Uncertainty has grown with weaker-than-expected U.S. data, including jobs growth in August and consumer spending, home building, new home sales, durable goods orders and industrial production in July.
A Reuters poll of economists on Monday this week found most now see the Fed trimming its $85 billion monthly spend on bonds by about $10 billion. This was down from $15 billion in a poll before the jobs report.
The shifting views have put pressure on the dollar, which hovered near two-week lows against a basket of major currencies .DXY on Thursday. U.S. Treasury yields have dipped to nearer 2.8 percent from over 3 percent last week.
But the euro slipped against the dollar on Thursday and European shares ended a run that had taken them near a five-year high when data showed a surprisingly large drop in industrial output across the currency bloc in July.
That bolsters the case for the European Central Bank to keep monetary policy loose in the face of changes at the Fed and adds weight to the argument that it should even consider another rate cut.
Europe's broad FTSE Eurofirst 300 index .FTEU3 was down 0.1 percent by mid-morning at 1,248.33 points, edging away from a 5-year high of 1,258.09 points reached in late May this year.
The MSCI world equity index .MIWD00000PUS was slightly lower, with U.S. stock index futures pointing to further weakness when trading gets underway on Wall St. .N
ASIAN RELIEF
Reduced expectations of the degree of Fed tapering eased pressure on emerging market currencies, which had been driven up as the cheap U.S. money was pumped into high-yielding stocks and bonds, and are now falling as these trades reverse.
Indonesia's central bank unveiled a surprise rate hike to help the rupiah recover from a 4-1/2 year low. Other Asian central banks were expected to wait for next week's Fed decision before taking any action.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS shed 0.2 percent while the stronger yen and downbeat economic data helped push Japan's Nikkei stock average .N225 down 0.3 percent.
In fixed income markets anticipation of the Fed trimming its stimulus combined with concerns abut domestic politics drove up Italy's borrowing costs at an auction of 7.5 billion euros ($10 billion) of new debt.
A cross-party Senate committee in Italy is due to resume a hearing later on whether to bar Silvio Berlusconi from political life, at the risk of prompting the former prime minister's allies to pull out the coalition government.
No decision by the Senate is expected until mid-October leaving investors in considerable uncertainty over whether the government has the strength to overhaul the economy and manage its budget deficit.
In commodities, copper slipped 0.9 percent to $7,101 a tonne. An improved outlook for China's economy and the reduced risk of a strike on Syria have helped bring copper prices off the three-year lows plumbed in late June.
Gold skidded 1.8 percent to $1,342.56 an ounce, its weakest since mid-August while Brent crude added about 0.8 percent to $112.40 as investors watched diplomatic efforts to place Syria's chemical weapons under international control stepped up.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov were meeting in Geneva on Thursday to try to agree on a strategy to eliminate the chemical arsenal.

Govt eyes cotton duty, electronics in rupee fight

The government could impose a 10 percent duty on cotton exports as early as Thursday aiming to boost overseas sales of value-added textiles to take advantage of a weak rupee and reduce the current account deficit, government sources and industry officials said.
The measure is due to be considered at a cabinet meeting on Thursday, where ministers are also expected to discuss a long-delayed plan to build two semiconductor factories with government subsidies to attract some $4 billion in investment.
Both policies, and a proposal to raise India's World Bank borrowing limit by $4.3 billion, could help bring in foreign exchange as India struggles to narrow the world's third largest current account deficit.
India is the second-biggest cotton producer after China and any curb on cotton exports could boost flagging global prices.
The government is trying to reduce a current account deficit which hit a record 4.8 percent of gross domestic product in the year ended March 31.
It hopes to take advantage of what is otherwise a damaging 16 percent fall in the rupee against the dollar since June 1.
India earned about $8.94 billion from cotton exports in 2012/13, equivalent to some 2.92 percent of total goods exports.
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) on Thursday said production should be 37.5 million bales in the year from October 1. Domestic consumption is likely to be 27-28 million bales.
"Any kind of duty on cotton exports would hit overseas demand for Indian cotton and would reduce farmers' returns," said Arun Kumar Dalal, a trader from Ahmedabad, a cotton market in Gujarat.
Measures discussed on Thursday could also include other steps for increasing cotton availability for textiles mills, which have been complaining of higher prices, said government sources directly involved in decision making.
SEMICONDUCTORS
The cabinet will also consider proposals on semiconductor manufacturing, a government official with direct knowledge of the matter said. Another official said the cabinet may give "in-principle" approval to the proposals.
Media reports have named IBM (IBM.N) and STMicroelectronics (STM.PA) among potential investors, while the companies have not officially confirmed the reports.
Israeli chipmaker TowerJazz (TSEM.TA) has said it has submitted a bid with two partners to build a plant in India.
India's demand for electronics products is forecast to rise nearly 10 times during the current decade to reach $400 billion by 2020.
Policymakers have said the electronics import bill could surpass that of oil due to lack of major local manufacturing.
As sales of smartphones, computers, television sets surge, annual imports of semiconductors is expected to touch $50 billion by 2020 from $7 billion in 2010