Showing posts with label Federal Reserve. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Federal Reserve. Show all posts

2014 may well be enhanced year for US wealth: Ben Bernanke

 Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday predicted a stronger year for the US economy in 2014, saying several factors that have held back growth appear to be abating.

Americans' finances have improved and the outlook for home sales is brighter, Bernanke said. He also expects less drag from federal spending cuts and tax increases.

The combination "bodes well for US economic growth in coming quarters," Bernanke said during a speech to the annual meeting of the American Economic Association in Philadelphia.

Bernanke made a similar assessment of the economy at a Dec 18 news conference after the Fed's last meeting. At the meeting, the Fed announced it would begin in January to reduce its monthly bond purchases from $85 billion to $75 billion, noting signs of an improving economy.

The bond purchases are intended to keep long-term interest rates low and encourage more borrowing and spending.

Friday's appearance was expected to be one of Bernanke's final speeches as Fed chairman. He is stepping down at the end of this month after eight years leading the central bank.

The Senate is expected to confirm Janet Yellen on Monday to be the next Fed chairman. She would take over on Feb. 1.

In his speech, Bernanke said that he tried to make the Fed more transparent and accountable while at the same time combating a deep recession and severe financial crisis.

Making the Fed more transparent was an important goal for him when he took over in 2006. He cited his participation in more television interviews, his efforts to hold more town hall meetings and his visits to universities. Bernanke also added a quarterly news conference after four of the Fed's eight policy meetings.

"We took extraordinary measures to meet extraordinary economic challenges and we had to explain those measures to earn the public's support and confidence," Bernanke said.

Bernanke said while the financial crisis has passed "the Fed's need to educate and explain will only grow."

Bernanke also used his speech to make some pointed remarks at Congress. He said "excessively tight" budget policies had been counterproductive.

"With fiscal and monetary policy working in opposite directions, the recovery is weaker than it otherwise would be," Bernanke said.

Bernanke also defended the central bank against critics who say the Fed's massive bond purchases have had little effect on jumpstarting the recovery.

"Economic growth might well have been considerably weaker, or even negative, without substantial monetary policy support," Bernanke said. He noted economic research that supported the benefits of the Fed's bond purchases.

In response to an audience question, Bernanke criticized legislation pending in Congress that would allow the Government Accountability Office to expand its audits of the Fed to look at decisions on interest rates. The GAO, the auditing arm of Congress, can currently conduct audits of the Fed. But it is prohibited from investigating its interest rate decisions.

Bernanke said passage of this legislation would be a bad idea because it would harm the Fed's independence. He said such independence is necessary to assure markets that the Fed is not being swayed by political interests.

Good news for emerging markets: 'Multi-week rally' may loom


Societe General predict a lengthy emerging markets rally on Friday, becoming the latest bank to turn bullish on the sector following the Federal Reserve's surprise judgment to maintain its USD 85 billion per month asset purchases. Emerging markets (EM) stocks, bonds and currencies joined in Wednesday's global rush after the Fed announcement. Markets have since pulled back - although EM assets have held some gains - but analysts said the US central bank's announcement will prove to be a pivotal moment in the longer-term. "After the highly significant Fed message, global emerging markets (GEM) are settling in in a new regime. That new regime is no longer a bear market, in our view," said Societe General analysts in a research note lead-written by EM Strategy Head Benoit Anne.

"While GEM is still in the process of digesting this massive Fed policy surprise, we believe that the market backdrop has strengthened considerably," the note added, saying now was the time to "turn tactically bullish." With the Fed now likely to maintain pressure on interest rates for longer than forecast, EM assets are seen to be benefiting from the hunt for yield. This was demonstrated over the summer, when as the apparent imminence of tapering caused real US interest rates to shoot up and speculative money rapidly departed markets such as Brazil, India and Turkey. But following this week's Fed news, Anne forecast a "multi-week" rally, and said that plenty of value remained in EM foreign exchange and interest rates. EM markets have been quick to take advantage of the improved sentiment so far, with a number of sovereign and quasi-sovereign issuers launching or planning new dollar bond deals. These include Armenia, Colombia, a Brazilian development bank and the Hungarian Development Bank. Anne added that the better backdrop would likely impact funds flowing back into the emerging markets, with outflows not only decelerating, but reversing. "While there may be regular episodes of profit-taking over the next few weeks, the Fed signal is a true-game changer, in our view," he said. Other EM bulls include Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi's Lee Hardman. "It is more uncertain now whether the Fed will begin to taper quantitative easing by year-end, and even if the economic data improves," he said on Friday. "That uncertainty should help to keep the US dollar on the defensive in the near-term and encourage investors to rebuild carry positions, boosting demand for high-yielding and higher risk emerging currencies."  

Societe Generale forecast a lengthy emerging markets rally on Friday, becoming the latest bank to turn bullish on the sector following the Federal Reserve's surprise decision to maintain its USD 85 billion per month asset purchases. Emerging markets (EM) stocks, bonds and currencies joined in Wednesday's global surge after the Fed announcement. Markets have since pulled back - although EM assets have held some gains - but analysts said the US central bank's announcement will prove to be a pivotal moment in the longer-term. "After the highly significant Fed message, global emerging markets (GEM) are settling in in a new regime. That new regime is no longer a bear market, in our view," said Societe General analysts in a research note lead-written by EM Strategy Head Benoit Anne.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/asian-markets/good-news-for-emerging-markets-39multi-week-rally39-may-loom_954217.html?topnews=1&utm_source=ref_article
Societe Generale forecast a lengthy emerging markets rally on Friday, becoming the latest bank to turn bullish on the sector following the Federal Reserve's surprise decision to maintain its USD 85 billion per month asset purchases. Emerging markets (EM) stocks, bonds and currencies joined in Wednesday's global surge after the Fed announcement. Markets have since pulled back - although EM assets have held some gains - but analysts said the US central bank's announcement will prove to be a pivotal moment in the longer-term. "After the highly significant Fed message, global emerging markets (GEM) are settling in in a new regime. That new regime is no longer a bear market, in our view," said Societe General analysts in a research note lead-written by EM Strategy Head Benoit Anne.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/asian-markets/good-news-for-emerging-markets-39multi-week-rally39-may-loom_954217.html?topnews=1&utm_source=ref_article
Societe Generale forecast a lengthy emerging markets rally on Friday, becoming the latest bank to turn bullish on the sector following the Federal Reserve's surprise decision to maintain its USD 85 billion per month asset purchases. Emerging markets (EM) stocks, bonds and currencies joined in Wednesday's global surge after the Fed announcement. Markets have since pulled back - although EM assets have held some gains - but analysts said the US central bank's announcement will prove to be a pivotal moment in the longer-term. "After the highly significant Fed message, global emerging markets (GEM) are settling in in a new regime. That new regime is no longer a bear market, in our view," said Societe General analysts in a research note lead-written by EM Strategy Head Benoit Anne.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/asian-markets/good-news-for-emerging-markets-39multi-week-rally39-may-loom_954217.html?topnews=1&utm_source=ref_article
Societe Generale forecast a lengthy emerging markets rally on Friday, becoming the latest bank to turn bullish on the sector following the Federal Reserve's surprise decision to maintain its USD 85 billion per month asset purchases. Emerging markets (EM) stocks, bonds and currencies joined in Wednesday's global surge after the Fed announcement. Markets have since pulled back - although EM assets have held some gains - but analysts said the US central bank's announcement will prove to be a pivotal moment in the longer-term. "After the highly significant Fed message, global emerging markets (GEM) are settling in in a new regime. That new regime is no longer a bear market, in our view," said Societe General analysts in a research note lead-written by EM Strategy Head Benoit Anne.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/asian-markets/good-news-for-emerging-markets-39multi-week-rally39-may-loom_954217.html?topnews=1&utm_source=ref_article
Societe Generale forecast a lengthy emerging markets rally on Friday, becoming the latest bank to turn bullish on the sector following the Federal Reserve's surprise decision to maintain its USD 85 billion per month asset purchases. Emerging markets (EM) stocks, bonds and currencies joined in Wednesday's global surge after the Fed announcement. Markets have since pulled back - although EM assets have held some gains - but analysts said the US central bank's announcement will prove to be a pivotal moment in the longer-term. "After the highly significant Fed message, global emerging markets (GEM) are settling in in a new regime. That new regime is no longer a bear market, in our view," said Societe General analysts in a research note lead-written by EM Strategy Head Benoit Anne.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/asian-markets/good-news-for-emerging-markets-39multi-week-rally39-may-loom_954217.html?topnews=1&utm_source=ref_article
Societe Generale forecast a lengthy emerging markets rally on Friday, becoming the latest bank to turn bullish on the sector following the Federal Reserve's surprise decision to maintain its USD 85 billion per month asset purchases. Emerging markets (EM) stocks, bonds and currencies joined in Wednesday's global surge after the Fed announcement. Markets have since pulled back - although EM assets have held some gains - but analysts said the US central bank's announcement will prove to be a pivotal moment in the longer-term. "After the highly significant Fed message, global emerging markets (GEM) are settling in in a new regime. That new regime is no longer a bear market, in our view," said Societe General analysts in a research note lead-written by EM Strategy Head Benoit Anne.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/asian-markets/good-news-for-emerging-markets-39multi-week-rally39-may-loom_954217.html?topnews=1&utm_source=ref_article
Societe Generale forecast a lengthy emerging markets rally on Friday, becoming the latest bank to turn bullish on the sector following the Federal Reserve's surprise decision to maintain its USD 85 billion per month asset purchases. Emerging markets (EM) stocks, bonds and currencies joined in Wednesday's global surge after the Fed announcement. Markets have since pulled back - although EM assets have held some gains - but analysts said the US central bank's announcement will prove to be a pivotal moment in the longer-term. "After the highly significant Fed message, global emerging markets (GEM) are settling in in a new regime. That new regime is no longer a bear market, in our view," said Societe General analysts in a research note lead-written by EM Strategy Head Benoit Anne.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/asian-markets/good-news-for-emerging-markets-39multi-week-rally39-may-loom_954217.html?topnews=1&utm_source=ref_article

Markets volatile ahead of FOMC outcome


Markets have turned volatile in morning deals as investors will be counting on the Federal Reserve to launch only a modest scaling back of stimulus later in the day.

At 1055 hours, the Sensex was up 19 points at 19,823 and the Nifty was flat at 5,853.

The gains were aided by Reliance Industries, ITC and HUL.

In the broader markets, the mid and smallcap indioces advanced and was up 0.3-0.5%.

On the sectoral indices, IT, Power and Auto indices were the only indices in the negative.

Will the Fed start its famed taper in September?

 
64% of 800 investors polled think it will start this week but weak US data suggest it might not be aggressive.
Two big events this week - the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday and RBI's policy review on Friday - will determine which way equity markets head.
Since June, the Federal Reserve has been looking to taper its $85 billion a month bond buying programme. The FOMC's meeting is crucial for emerging markets like India because over the last few years, financial markets have been fuelled by easy liquidity.

Since 2009, $100 billion has flowed into Indian equities. Not surprising, then, that the talk of a possible taper from this month has sent risk assets and commodities into a tailspin.
So, are the taper related fears unfounded or are they real? To begin with, markets have already priced in some tapering from this month. However, if the Fed tapers its bond buying by $10 billion, the impact on financial markets would be negligible.
But if it is higher than $10 billion, markets may roil. According to a Barclays survey, conducted among 800 global investors, 64 per cent of respondents believe tapering will start this week and almost all of them expect it to occur before the end of the year.

Investors now perceive the removal of Fed stimulus will start earlier, the survey says. Forty five per cent expect the Fed to finish their open-ended QE3 programme in second quarter of 2014, while most respondents in our June survey thought it would happen in the fourth quarter of 2014 or later.

Interestingly, most investors believe equities have become less attractive but have shown a slight increase in their preference for emerging markets and commodities from June.

Barclays says: "The perception of key risks has also shifted. Last quarter, a reduction in Fed policy stimulus was seen as the key risk for markets by nearly 40 per cent of survey participants; today, the number is just 26 per cent."
Several economists in the US believe concerns regarding a taper could be premature, as growth data continues to be weak and the Fed does not want "risk off" trades just yet.
Talks of a taper have pushed up interest rates in the US by over 100 basis points and any further increase would impact growth. For starters, it is believed growth has slowed in the third quarter (ended September) from the 2.5 per cent seen in the second quarter. Economic growth bottomed out in the fourth quarter of 2012 when it touched 0.1 per cent. While there is no doubt that growth is picking up, questions remain on how sustainable this would be without the stimulus.

Since the Fed met at the end of July, there have been 21 growth-related data releases. Of the 21 releases, 12 have been below consensus.

New home sales in the US in the month of July have fallen by 13.4 per cent. Bank of America Merrill Lynch says it's a close call but it is still in the December camp when it comes to the Fed's possible tapering.