The risk of a sovereign downgrade risk has only become exacerbated after international rating agency Moody’s downgraded State Bank of India’s senior debt and local currency deposit to ‘Baa3’, and now has a negative outlook. The market is viewing this as a proxy for the sovereign rating. The State Bank of India and group entities account for 25 per cent of the country’s banking system. Currency strategists say that despite the recent euphoria after the Fed’s “no taper” decision, India is far from the comfort zone.
The stress is not only in the banking system, India Ratings and Research in a report has said that the default rate of corporate finance issuers in the country has risen to 4.5 per cent in FY13 from 3.5 per cent and 0.3 per cent in the previous two years. What this implies is that the RBI’s move to ease liquidity conditions will have little bearing on the current financial condition of borrowers and their ability to repay loans. Scotia Bank’s currency strategist Sacha Tihanyi says that this should remind the market of the risk to the sovereign of a credit rating downgrade, as Standard & Poor’s currently has the country’s BBB– investment grade rating on a negative outlook (other major agencies have it on stable).