GDP growth likely edged up to 4.6% last quarter

New Delhi: India's economic growth likely picked up slightly in the July-September quarter as improved manufacturing activity steered it from a four-year low in the previous three months, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

Any improvement would be welcome news for the government as a string of opinion polls forecast a poor performance for the ruling party in general elections which must be held by next May.

Economic growth virtually halved in two years to 5 percent in the last fiscal year - the lowest level in a decade - and most economists surveyed by Reuters last month expect 2013/14 to be worse.

The consensus of 40 economists showed gross domestic product expanded 4.6 percent year-on-year in the last quarter, better than the 4.4 percent in the previous three months, which was the lowest since the global financial crisis.

"It is only a marginal improvement with much of the support from a slight recovery in manufacturing sector," said Upasna Bhardwaj, an economist at ING Vysya Bank.

A moderate recovery in Indian factories and exports were probably the main drivers for an increase in overall growth in the quarter through September. Annual industrial output picked up 2 percent in September, driven by an uptick in export and domestic orders.

Stronger global demand for India's exports also led to an increase in production, with exports growing 11.15 percent annually in September.

Also, a good monsoon should have boosted rural income and perked up flagging consumer demand.

However, a dearth of investment lies at the heart of India's economic malaise.

Little improvement is expected ahead of the general election, with investors doubting whether Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's minority government can force through any bold actions between now and then.

Radhika Rao, an economist at DBS in Singapore, said euphoria surrounding Singh's earlier reform plans had eased after they failed to materialise.

"It is not surprising that the private sector keeps expansion plans on ice," Rao added.

With wholesale price inflation moving back above the Reserve Bank of India's perceived comfort level of 5 percent and consumer inflation quickening to more than 10 percent, there is little expectation the central bank will act to ease policy boost growth.

In face, new RBI chief Raghuram Rajan has hiked interest rates twice in as many months since September, tackling rising prices head on.

Internal migrants contribute 10% to GDP: UNESCO

New Delhi: Internal migrants, estimated to constitute about 30 percent of the population, contribute 10 percent to the country's GDP with employment having become the biggest reason behind migration, a UNESCO report has said.

The report considers internal migration as being a key factor behind prosperous cities, boosting economic activity and growth.

Citing various sources, it estimated that following Census 2011, the number of migrants may have increased to about 400 million from 309 million in 2001.

The report, however, says that most of the million-plus cities have recorded significant decline in population growth, hinting that they have become "less welcoming" to migrants.

Against the projected 400 million migrants in India, their global number was 740 million in 2009.

The report entitled 'Social Inclusion of Internal Migrants in India' says women form an overwhelming majority of migrants in the country ? 70.7 percent as per Census 2001 and 80 percent according to NSSO (2007-08) data.

It said 91.3 percent women in rural areas and 60.8 percent in urban areas were migrants, putting such high numbers down to marriage.

About 30 percent of the migrants in the country belong to the 15-29 years age group.

The report says migrants are often victims of politics based on "vote banks along ethnic, linguistic and religious lines" and face political and administrative exclusion and discrimination.

Women migrants face a double discrimination for reasons particular to their gender, it adds.

Migration, it says, is an integral part of development and the rising contribution of cities to India's GDP would not be possible without them.

"Internal migrants contribute cheap labour for manufacturing and services and, in doing so, contribute to the national GDP, but this is not recognised. Far from being a drain and burden, they are in fact providing a subsidy," the report says.

"Migrants are looked upon as outsiders by the host administration and as a burden on systems and resources. Their right to the city is denied on the political defence of the 'sons of the soil' theory which aims to create vote banks along ethnic, linguistic and religious lines," it says.

The UNESCO report has pushed for promoting positive political discourse and avoiding a prejudiced negative portrayal of internal migrants.

Though not counted as metropolitan cities, Surat, Nashik, Ludhiana, Faridabad and Pune are among the million-plus cities which house the maximum migrants with respect to their overall population, the UNESCO report says.

Migrants make up 58 percent of the population in Surat, 57 percent in Ludhiana, 55 percent in Faridabad, 50 percent in Nashik and 45 percent in Pune, according to Census 2001 data cited by the report.

They account for 43 percent of the population in Delhi as well as in Mumbai.

Calling for better legal and social protection for them, the report says internal migrants are particularly vulnerable due to low rates of education and ignorance about their rights.

The overall literacy rate, as per Census 2011, was 74.04 percent with male and female literacy being at 82.14 and 65.46 percent, respectively. However, among migrants, 57.8 percent of the females and 25.8 percent of males were illiterate.

NSSO data for 2007-08 reveals that 52 percent short- duration migrants were either illiterate or had not completed primary education.

We need to look beyond gloom & doom: Mukesh Ambani

Mumbai: Sounding confident that the economy will overcome the current crisis, Reliance industry chairman Mukesh Ambani on Tuesday said there is a need to look beyond the gloom and doom.

"India should look beyond the gloom and doom," Ambani said at the Giants International 41st anniversary celebrations and awards function here tonight.

He was addressing as the chief guest at the function.

Stating that India needs a positive and inclusive mindset, Ambani expressed confidence that despite all the negativity India will become a major power.

"I have realised that by focusing on obstacles, you don't reach your goals. Instead focus on your goals to overcome obstacles," he said.

After going through a financial turmoil for almost a year, greenshoots have appeared in the economy of late, giving a hope of recovery.

After contracting for two straight months, industrial production entered the positive zone in July, recording a growth of 2.6 per cent on account of improved performance of manufacturing and power sectors.

The IIP data revealed that out of the 22 industry groups in the manufacturing sector, as many as 11 posted positive growth rates in July.

Besides, snapping a nine-month streak of decline, domestic passenger car sales also grew by 15.37 per cent to 1,33,486 units in August this year, compared to 1,15,705 units in the same month last year.