Showing posts with label India economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label India economy. Show all posts

GDP growth likely edged up to 4.6% last quarter

GDP growth likely edged up to 4.6% last quarter
New Delhi: India's economic growth likely picked up slightly in the July-September quarter as improved manufacturing activity steered it from a four-year low in the previous three months, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

Any improvement would be welcome news for the government as a string of opinion polls forecast a poor performance for the ruling party in general elections which must be held by next May.

Economic growth virtually halved in two years to 5 percent in the last fiscal year - the lowest level in a decade - and most economists surveyed by Reuters last month expect 2013/14 to be worse.

The consensus of 40 economists showed gross domestic product expanded 4.6 percent year-on-year in the last quarter, better than the 4.4 percent in the previous three months, which was the lowest since the global financial crisis.

"It is only a marginal improvement with much of the support from a slight recovery in manufacturing sector," said Upasna Bhardwaj, an economist at ING Vysya Bank.

A moderate recovery in Indian factories and exports were probably the main drivers for an increase in overall growth in the quarter through September. Annual industrial output picked up 2 percent in September, driven by an uptick in export and domestic orders.

Stronger global demand for India's exports also led to an increase in production, with exports growing 11.15 percent annually in September.

Also, a good monsoon should have boosted rural income and perked up flagging consumer demand.

However, a dearth of investment lies at the heart of India's economic malaise.

Little improvement is expected ahead of the general election, with investors doubting whether Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's minority government can force through any bold actions between now and then.

Radhika Rao, an economist at DBS in Singapore, said euphoria surrounding Singh's earlier reform plans had eased after they failed to materialise.

"It is not surprising that the private sector keeps expansion plans on ice," Rao added.

With wholesale price inflation moving back above the Reserve Bank of India's perceived comfort level of 5 percent and consumer inflation quickening to more than 10 percent, there is little expectation the central bank will act to ease policy boost growth.

In face, new RBI chief Raghuram Rajan has hiked interest rates twice in as many months since September, tackling rising prices head on.


We need to look beyond gloom & doom: Mukesh Ambani


Mumbai: Sounding confident that the economy will overcome the current crisis, Reliance industry chairman Mukesh Ambani on Tuesday said there is a need to look beyond the gloom and doom.

"India should look beyond the gloom and doom," Ambani said at the Giants International 41st anniversary celebrations and awards function here tonight.

He was addressing as the chief guest at the function.

Stating that India needs a positive and inclusive mindset, Ambani expressed confidence that despite all the negativity India will become a major power.

"I have realised that by focusing on obstacles, you don't reach your goals. Instead focus on your goals to overcome obstacles," he said.

After going through a financial turmoil for almost a year, greenshoots have appeared in the economy of late, giving a hope of recovery.

After contracting for two straight months, industrial production entered the positive zone in July, recording a growth of 2.6 per cent on account of improved performance of manufacturing and power sectors.

The IIP data revealed that out of the 22 industry groups in the manufacturing sector, as many as 11 posted positive growth rates in July.

Besides, snapping a nine-month streak of decline, domestic passenger car sales also grew by 15.37 per cent to 1,33,486 units in August this year, compared to 1,15,705 units in the same month last year.

India Inc to policymakers: Shape up, or we'll ship out

Mumbai: After the rapid slide in the rupee this year, the message from the country's corporate titans to the government is clear: shape up and fix the problems or more companies will expand their business abroad and deprive the economy of investment.

Many, such as entrepreneur Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw, are already doing just that.

Ranked by Forbes as one of the world's most powerful women, she is investing about $200 million in a manufacturing plant in Malaysia for her biotechnology firm Biocon Ltd to offset unreliable power and water supplies back home. It already makes more than half its sales overseas.

"If India had better infrastructure and more availability of power I may not have gone abroad," said Shaw, who followed in her father's footsteps with a master's degree in brewing in Australia before setting up Biocon in her garage in Bangalore 35 years ago.

"We don't have enough power, we don't have enough water. So some of these projects where we need water and power, I will do it in Malaysia because that's where it is abundant," Shaw, who is ranked 92 in India's rich list with a net worth of $625 million, told Reuters in an interview.

She is one of many top entrepreneurs voicing frustration that policymakers failed to keep economic reforms rolling over the past decade, which they contend would have prevented India from stumbling into its deepest economic crisis since 1991, when it was forced to pledge the country's gold reserves in exchange for international loans.

Economic growth has almost halved in pace to less than 5 percent in the past six years, a flood of cash leaving the country has led to a record current account deficit and combined with a rout of emerging markets, has sent the rupee into a tail spin. At its record low of 68.85 per dollar in late August, it was down around 20 percent from the end of 2012, the worst performer among Asia's currencies. It has since risen slightly to 65.24.

The lack of reform and infrastructure, painfully slow decision making and red tape are common complaints of corporate India, but this time they could come at a cost as the rupee crisis shows businesses how vulnerable they are.

The political cost could hit the Congress-led ruling coalition at national elections that must be called by May. An opinion poll on Friday showed nearly three-quarters of Indian business leaders want opposition figure Narendra Modi to run the country after the election.

Modi is in the political ascendancy after turning the western state of Gujarat into the country's economic star with double-digit growth and investor friendly policies.

The economic cost is underlined by Indian Inc.'s overseas direct investment. Including bank guarantees issued to overseas units, it stood at more than $21 billion in the first seven months of this year, up 38 percent from the same period of 2012.

That is set to increase as Indian companies see the advantages of diversifying globally.

In a bid to reduce its dependence on a slowing Indian auto market and get a foothold in China and the United States, Apollo Tyres agreed in June to pay $2.5 billion for U.S.-based Cooper Tire & Rubber Co , which was nearly three times its own market value at that time.

Yusuf Hamied, the billionaire chief of drugmaker Cipla Ltd, which in July completed the acquisition of South Africa's Cipla Medpro for about $460 million, is expanding his company's base in Algeria and Morocco as part of a North Africa thrust.

Aditya Birla Group, the $40 billion diversified conglomerate that gets more than half its sales from overseas operations, plans to invest $1 billion setting up a chemical plant in the United States, local media reported last month.

A spokeswoman for the group, whose business interests range from mining and metals to financial services and telecoms, was unavailable to comment.

"MORE AND MORE DIFFICULT"

The Reserve Bank of India last month reduced companies' overseas investment limit to 100 percent of their net worth from 400 percent, part of a drive to curb dollar outflows and prop up the rupee.
While these steps could put a brake on overseas investments in the short term, they might not halt the outbound march in the longer term.

"The government has to give us infrastructure - not for a day, not for six months - there has to be long-term infrastructure, policies that are sustainable so that we can then also plan accordingly," said Cipla's Hamied.

"In healthcare there are five ministries involved - chemicals and fertilisers, finance ministry, law ministry, health ministry, commerce ministry - there is no nodal body. Who do you go to for infrastructure or for advice or anything?"

Hamied is particularly concerned about the impact on the domestic pharmaceutical business of a new pricing policy that has increased the number of drugs deemed essential that are subject to price caps.

Many industrialists complain that delays in approving projects due to differences among various government departments and red tape make it tougher for India Inc to set up manufacturing operations in the country than overseas.

"It is becoming more and more difficult, in any sector. Look at the real estate sector, the amount of commissions, the amount of bureaucracy that is there is too much," said billionaire Ajay Piramal, chairman of the healthcare-to-real estate conglomerate Piramal Group. "We need to have clear rules of business ... unfortunately that's not happening."

With the prospect of a populist spending splurge ahead of the national elections, industrialists like billionaire Rahul Bajaj, chairman of motorcycles and three-wheeler maker Bajaj Auto are not betting on any changes soon.

"I believe the government will keep taking short-term measures, which will have limited effect," Bajaj said. "The way things are going, the earlier the elections the better."