India's economic growth rate will pick up soon, says RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan

SUMMARYRaghuram Rajan reiterated view on economic growth rate being linked with curbing inflation.

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan has expressed optimism on India's growth rate going beyond the 5 per cent mark soon.

"The economy has been growing at a flat rate of 5 per cent and hopefully we will see it picking up in the near future," he said on the sidelines of a special talk at Oxford University yesterday.

Rajan also reiterated his view on the growth rate being inextricably linked with curbing inflation.

"I have always stressed that stimulating growth and controlling inflation are not opposed to each other. Inflation is what is standing in the way of India's growth," he added.

Rajan was addressing student members of the Oxford Union Society (OUS) on his way to Switzerland, where he has meetings planned with the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) on May 11 and 12.

He stressed that his comments to the students were off the record and would not address any political issues as things will be clear only on May 16, when the general election results are announced.

Rajan also expressed confidence that whichever government takes over, will lay a clear path to revive growth as he answered a series of questions on the state of the Indian economy from students.

The senior economist joined a league of distinguished speakers at the OUS, which has hosted Queen Elizabeth II, the Dalai Lama and Mother Teresa in the past.

GDP growth likely edged up to 4.6% last quarter

New Delhi: India's economic growth likely picked up slightly in the July-September quarter as improved manufacturing activity steered it from a four-year low in the previous three months, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

Any improvement would be welcome news for the government as a string of opinion polls forecast a poor performance for the ruling party in general elections which must be held by next May.

Economic growth virtually halved in two years to 5 percent in the last fiscal year - the lowest level in a decade - and most economists surveyed by Reuters last month expect 2013/14 to be worse.

The consensus of 40 economists showed gross domestic product expanded 4.6 percent year-on-year in the last quarter, better than the 4.4 percent in the previous three months, which was the lowest since the global financial crisis.

"It is only a marginal improvement with much of the support from a slight recovery in manufacturing sector," said Upasna Bhardwaj, an economist at ING Vysya Bank.

A moderate recovery in Indian factories and exports were probably the main drivers for an increase in overall growth in the quarter through September. Annual industrial output picked up 2 percent in September, driven by an uptick in export and domestic orders.

Stronger global demand for India's exports also led to an increase in production, with exports growing 11.15 percent annually in September.

Also, a good monsoon should have boosted rural income and perked up flagging consumer demand.

However, a dearth of investment lies at the heart of India's economic malaise.

Little improvement is expected ahead of the general election, with investors doubting whether Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's minority government can force through any bold actions between now and then.

Radhika Rao, an economist at DBS in Singapore, said euphoria surrounding Singh's earlier reform plans had eased after they failed to materialise.

"It is not surprising that the private sector keeps expansion plans on ice," Rao added.

With wholesale price inflation moving back above the Reserve Bank of India's perceived comfort level of 5 percent and consumer inflation quickening to more than 10 percent, there is little expectation the central bank will act to ease policy boost growth.

In face, new RBI chief Raghuram Rajan has hiked interest rates twice in as many months since September, tackling rising prices head on.

We need to look beyond gloom & doom: Mukesh Ambani

Mumbai: Sounding confident that the economy will overcome the current crisis, Reliance industry chairman Mukesh Ambani on Tuesday said there is a need to look beyond the gloom and doom.

"India should look beyond the gloom and doom," Ambani said at the Giants International 41st anniversary celebrations and awards function here tonight.

He was addressing as the chief guest at the function.

Stating that India needs a positive and inclusive mindset, Ambani expressed confidence that despite all the negativity India will become a major power.

"I have realised that by focusing on obstacles, you don't reach your goals. Instead focus on your goals to overcome obstacles," he said.

After going through a financial turmoil for almost a year, greenshoots have appeared in the economy of late, giving a hope of recovery.

After contracting for two straight months, industrial production entered the positive zone in July, recording a growth of 2.6 per cent on account of improved performance of manufacturing and power sectors.

The IIP data revealed that out of the 22 industry groups in the manufacturing sector, as many as 11 posted positive growth rates in July.

Besides, snapping a nine-month streak of decline, domestic passenger car sales also grew by 15.37 per cent to 1,33,486 units in August this year, compared to 1,15,705 units in the same month last year.