Reduced wealth derails scheduling Commission's 8 pc expansion object in 12th Plan

 

Poor presentation of the saving during 2013 derailed Planning Commission's ambitious growth target of 8 per cent for the 12th Plan, which the nation's official think-tank will revise downwards in the new year as part of its mid-term evaluation exercise.

During the first year of the 12th Plan, India's saving grew by only 5 per cent, the slowest in a decade. In the first half (April-September) of the in progress financial year 2013-14, the economy grew by just 4.6 per cent.

Attributing lower-than-expected growth to worldwide factors, Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said 12th Plan's growth target could be lowered to around 7.5 per cent.

"In the 12th Plan for the first time, upper-end concert was going to be just about 8 per cent normal in a year but since then universal economy has done much inferior. So, today 8 per cent is bit on the high side. The opportunity for next five years I feel is 7.5 per cent which is not unworkable," he said

GDP growth likely edged up to 4.6% last quarter

New Delhi: India's economic growth likely picked up slightly in the July-September quarter as improved manufacturing activity steered it from a four-year low in the previous three months, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

Any improvement would be welcome news for the government as a string of opinion polls forecast a poor performance for the ruling party in general elections which must be held by next May.

Economic growth virtually halved in two years to 5 percent in the last fiscal year - the lowest level in a decade - and most economists surveyed by Reuters last month expect 2013/14 to be worse.

The consensus of 40 economists showed gross domestic product expanded 4.6 percent year-on-year in the last quarter, better than the 4.4 percent in the previous three months, which was the lowest since the global financial crisis.

"It is only a marginal improvement with much of the support from a slight recovery in manufacturing sector," said Upasna Bhardwaj, an economist at ING Vysya Bank.

A moderate recovery in Indian factories and exports were probably the main drivers for an increase in overall growth in the quarter through September. Annual industrial output picked up 2 percent in September, driven by an uptick in export and domestic orders.

Stronger global demand for India's exports also led to an increase in production, with exports growing 11.15 percent annually in September.

Also, a good monsoon should have boosted rural income and perked up flagging consumer demand.

However, a dearth of investment lies at the heart of India's economic malaise.

Little improvement is expected ahead of the general election, with investors doubting whether Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's minority government can force through any bold actions between now and then.

Radhika Rao, an economist at DBS in Singapore, said euphoria surrounding Singh's earlier reform plans had eased after they failed to materialise.

"It is not surprising that the private sector keeps expansion plans on ice," Rao added.

With wholesale price inflation moving back above the Reserve Bank of India's perceived comfort level of 5 percent and consumer inflation quickening to more than 10 percent, there is little expectation the central bank will act to ease policy boost growth.

In face, new RBI chief Raghuram Rajan has hiked interest rates twice in as many months since September, tackling rising prices head on.

Govt will get over negativity, says Chidambaram

 
Finance Minister P Chidambaram has conceded that a potent mix of factors like slowdown of economic growth, dysfunction of the executive and corruption allegations has brought in a "high degree of negativity" but expressed confidence that the government would get over it.

"In the second five years of UPA, yes, there is, I can sense, I can see that the voter is at the moment negative. I can see that. I am blind if I don't see that. The reason is slowdown in economic growth , dysfunction of the executive, the cases of allegations of corruption, investigations that are going on, inflation and a slowdown in job creation. I think it is a potent and powerful mix, a potent mix of factors which has brought in a high degree of negativity. It is possible we may get over it."

"It is possible we don't get over it. It is a verdict we have to leave to the people. We have to accept whatever the verdict people will give," Chidambaram said at the "Thinkfest" event in Bambolim near Panaji.

Even in this slowdown in the last nine years, the country has clocked an average of 7.5 per cent growth.

"It is sad that at the end of the 10-year term, the growth has seen slowdown for a couple of years after having been high in the middle years and low in the last two years. I am doing my best. I will continue to do my best to see that there is an upturn before we go to polls," he said.

Chidambaram was replying to a question whether at the end of the second UPA term in the context of global pressures, CAG reports and high optimism in which the coalition was voted to power in 2009, there was today a lack of credibility for the government and that the prime minister was singularly lacking in leadership.

He shot back saying that he cannot remain in government and comment on the prime minister.

"That is not correct, that is not appropriate. I won't do it. He is the prime minister. I am a minister in his Cabinet. I have to accept his leadership and respect him. I am sorry, I cannot answer this question."